Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 31 – The Russian
presidential election did not change the occupant of the Kremlin, but there are
indications that the campaign itself may have changed the arrangement of
players on the political board, prompting some groups to combine with others
and driving still a third from politics altogether.
One of the most intriguing developments in
this regard is evidence from Bashkortostan that some Bashkir nationalists have found
it possible to work with both Aleksey Navalny and the candidates of some of the
systemic opposition parties and that this experience may carry over to this
fall’s elections to the regional parliament.
While many Russian analysts are dismissive
that such ties can prove lasting, Moscow almost certainly is concerned even by
the possibility because the most powerful national movements at the end of the
Soviet period were in those republics where the two groups cooperated.
Both then and in the years since, Moscow
has done what it can to play these two groups against one another in order to
weaken both and to ensure that the center will remain the arbiter of political
outcomes so that the nationalists will not gain the support of liberals and
communists and the latter will not gain the energy of the nationalists.
That Moscow is concerned about what has
been happening in Bashkortostan is suggested by Regnum journalist Yekaterina
Nekrasova who points out that the multi-national republic “is considered a
unique ‘mirror’ reflecting the cultural and ethnic multiplicity of all Russia
and also a region where there is occurring constructive dialogue among
representatives of different ethnic groups” (regnum.ru/news/polit/2398374.html).
She suggests that most of the public
nationalist groups in Bashkortostan are controlled by the authorities in Ufa or
Moscow or both. And most of them, Nekrasova
continues, exist only on paper and are unknown to the vast majority of the
population. But their actions nevertheless can have an impact on political
life.
And Nekrasova admits as much by entitling
one of the sections of her article, “the fusion of Bashkir nationalists and the
liberal opposition” in which she describes the cooperation of various Bashkir
nationalist groups with Aleksey Navvalny and Kseniya Sobchak. In a following
section, she says, these same nationalist groups also reached agreement with
the KPRF.
The new Congress of the Bashskir People “quickly
found common language with the liberal opposition of the republic. Both sides
easily ‘sacrificed their principles,’ with the liberal forgetting that they
were against nationalism and chauvinism and the Bashkir nationalists that they
had proclaimed traditional family values.”
“What united such contradictory movements?”
Nekrasova asks. “There is one answer: a rejection of the Russian World and of
the Russian state and its structures. This was most clearly manifest in the
presidential elections of 2018,” and it may become even more important in the upcoming
elections, not necessarily affecting outcomes but in changing discussions and
tone.
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