Paul Goble
Staunton,
February 4 – The Russian media are focusing on the findings of a new Levada Center
poll showing that 41 percent of Russians between 18 and 24 are ready to
emigrate because they have lost hope in the future of their country and that
almost one in five of all Russians know someone who has left in the last two
years.
But
perhaps the most important finding of this poll is one that Kommersant highlights: one in every four
Russians who describe themselves as politically active now want to move abroad,
a development that will certainly reduce the pressure on Vladimir Putin but at
the cost of undermining the country’s future (kommersant.ru/doc/3873384).
There
are compelling reasons for both conclusions.
Moscow analyst Yekaterina Schulmann recently suggested that one of the great
advantages of what she calls “hybrid” regimes and one that makes them stable is
their willingness to allow those who want to leave to do so (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/02/are-hybrid-regimes-stable-schulmann.html).
When
such people depart, she argues, the regime faces ever less pressure to change
because those who might have gone into the streets to oppose it are now living
abroad where any protests they make will matter less. Schulmann was speaking
about Maduro’s Venezuela. The new Levada poll suggests that she could very well
have been speaking about Putin’s Russia.
But
if Putin benefits, Russia does not. When a country deprives its young of hope
for the future and hope of any prospect that they will be able to change an
unfortunate present for a better future either personally or the country as a
whole, that country may not experience turmoil but it will not experience
progress either.
One
commentator lamented this situation saying that “the real results of Putin is
that half of young Russians are ready to flee the country” implying that in
this way as in so many others, the Kremlin leader may have saved himself but at
the cost of destroying Russia’s future (rusmonitor.com/realnye-itogi-putina-polovina-molodykh-rossiyan-gotova-bezhat-iz-strany.html).
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