Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 29 – The
underlying cause of the conflicts that have been roiling Buryatia since the
elections is not the conflict between the authorities and the communists as
many suppose but rather between those in the Buryat regime who are counting on
ties with China and those in the Far Eastern FD who are looking toward Japan,
according to Ruslan Gorevoy.
Indeed, for Far Eastern Federal District
head Yury Trutnev, the outcome of this conflict is so important that he has
involved involve shamans, directly financing some of them against Moscow, to
shake things up and get his way, the Versiya commentator says (versia.ru/na-mitingax-reshaetsya-chej-resursnoj-bazoj-stanet-nash-dalnij-vostok-yaponii-ili-kitaya).
According to Gorevoy, experts and
officials have long debated which country – China or Japan – can do the most
good for and inflict the least harm on Russia.
Some see China as predatory, taking resources but doing little for Russia
besides paying for them and think Japanese investment will be of greater
benefit.
(On that debate and the reasons many
in the Far Eastern FD view Japan as the preferential partner, see most prominently
Vladislav Inozemtsev’s 2017 article on “China or Japan – Which Choice will
Russia Make” at mk.ru/economics/2017/04/24/rossiya-nachala-peresmatrivat-otnosheniya-s-kitaem-sotrudnichestvo-dokazyvaet-odnostoronnost.html.)
Buryatia is the
place where this debate has taken the most concrete and political form, the Versiya
commentator says. On the one hand, it is where Chinese investment has been very
high; but on the other, its governor Aleksey Tsydenov of United Russia has been
overseeing its shift from the Siberian FD to the Far Eastern one where he is opposing
the Japanese “vector.”
Whether Tsydenov
was behind the decision to shift Buryatia or whether Moscow was is immaterial,
Gorevoy says, and whether he really wants to fight Japan in favor of China is
as well. That is what is opponents say,
and that is what underlies the conflict now on public view there.
If the protests in
Buryatia drive Tsydenov from office, the Far Eastern FD and its Japanese choice
will continue unabated, the commentator suggests; and that means this: “In essence
at these meeting is being deciding whose resource base the Russian Far East
will be, Japan’s or China’s.”
According to
Gorevoy, the Far Eastern FD has taken the lead in talking about “the Chinese
threat” in order to convince people in the region that they should turn away
from Beijing and toward Tokyo. As a result, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
this summer has been speaking out against the idea that China is a threat.
Nonetheless, “the
leaders of the Buryat protests have been spreading the myth that in Siberia and
the Far East 14 million Chinese have come in,” scaring many about what cooperation
with Beijing will mean. (In the past,
Moscow used this meme to keep the region in line, but now it views China as an
ally and source of profit.)
It is said,
Gorevoy continues, that Moscow has “more than once” sent messages to Trutnev
that he must treat all foreign investors equally. “But nothing has changed.”
Instead, because of his attitudes, the Chinese have been cutting back on
investments while Japan has been increasing its, even though the latter’s remain
far smaller.
And that is where
the shamans come in. Gabyshev who has
now been arrested and sent back to Sakha by Moscow collected money from people
along the way, but those who have come after him, it is reported, are being
funded from Vladivostok, that is, by the Far Eastern FD, which views such
marches as a means to get its way by distracting the center.
Gorevoy concludes
with what he sees as the crowning piece of evidence for his argument. Rumors are swirling in Ulan-Ude, he says,
that “the campaign against the head of the republic has been ordered up by
Vladivostok.” The Far Eastern FD is using the communists in Buryatia as “a
useful instrument, like a pliers to pull out a rusty nail.”
This
conspiratorial version of events may be too clever by half – Gorevoy has sometimes
been guilty of offering such “versions” on other subjects in the past – but in
the murky world of Russian politics and given the stakes of the competition
between China and Japan in Russia east of the Urals, it would likely be wrong
to dismiss it altogether.
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