Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 6 – Talks between
Vladimir Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka have been conducted in such secrecy
that while it is obvious they are about swapping sovereignty for energy
security, it remains unclear whether they will soon lead to an Anschluss or
only the announcement of more “road maps” for closer ties, Anton Kostsov says.
But one thing is absolutely certain,
the Belarusian commentator continues. And it is this: “an equal union between
two dictators is simply impossible,” however
often Putin suggests that is what he has in mind or however much Lukashenka may
believe that such an arrangement will save him (region.expert/belarus-integration/).
Nonetheless, there are a minimum of
three scenarios for what will happen in the coming days, weeks, and months can
be specified, Kostsov argues; and while “the situation really very much recalls
the preparation for the Anschluss of Austria in the 1930s, it is far from
certain that it will occur completely on December 8.”
The first scenario is that Lukashenka
will be able to maneuver as he has since the Union State agreement was signed
in 1999. He may have to agree to a supplement to that accord but may see that
as a price worth paying to keep himself and his dynasty in power.
The second is that Putin will decide
that the time has come to force Lukashenka to agree to his terms. The Kremlin leader can do that by using
economic leverage to undermine the Belarusian dictator and force him to yield
step-by-step the sovereignty of Belarus.
In that event, Kostsov says, “the
foundations for an Anschluss will be laid on December 8 but it will be implemented
in stages, first, economically, then politically and finally militarily.” The
Kremlin wants to put military aircraft and S-300 systems in Grodno Oblast to
pressure Poland and Lithuania. It hasn’t ever forgotten “the strategically
important Suvalky corridor.”
And the third variant is that in the
face of this Russian pressure, Lukashenka will make a sharp turn to the
West. “How sharp this might be is hard
to say.” The Soviet-style dictator is limited by his own form of rule, and the West
is deeply suspicious of what he and his regime are about, even if they do
represent a potential bulwark against Russian neo-imperialism.
If such a turn did occur, the consequences
for everyone would be “the most unpredictable.” Putin would not be willing to
tolerate a pro-Western Belarus on his borders, and he and his people are
already thinking about what they might do in response short of a direct
invasion that would certainly spark a Western response, Kostsov points out.
One idea, being pushed by Anton
Kuzavko, head of the Agency for Integration Initiatives, a group supported by
Kremlin grants, is the creation of something like what Moscow has done in Ukraine
– the creation of a Dnepro-Dvina Region or DDR, centered on Smolensk and with a
population of 3.1 million people.
“Beyond any doubt,” Kostsov says, “Belarus
must move closer to the West if it is to preserve its independence. This is the
only correct, natural and civilized path. The country is European. But this
must be done in a thoughtful and careful way without any sudden or sharp movements.”
The Belarusian analyst says that he
would recommend “for a start” the signing of a framework agreement with the European
Union and the exploration of some military cooperation with the United States
because “only the US is capable of defending the independence of Belarus in the
case of Russian aggression.”
“As of now,” he concludes, “it is
impossible to predict what will occur on December 8. But most likely, the culmination
[of this drama] will begin later, likely immediately after the New Year.” But
as the dictators talk, keep in mind that only seven percent of Belarusians
support an Anschluss, “according to the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of
Belarus.”
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