Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 16 – The Belarus
government has changed the country’s coat of arms from one with a map showing
Belarus at the western edge of Eurasia to a new version displaying the country
on a map at the eastern edge of Europe, a move some are dismissing as
meaningless but one that says a lot about Minsk’s current aspirations.
Many commentators are dismissive of
this change, particularly since Belarus, almost alone among the post-Soviet
states, has under Alyaksandr Lukashenka retained Soviet-era symbols, including its
flag and coat of arms, and since the only changes in the coat of arms being
made now are in the map and the color scheme of the still-Soviet remainder.
(For pictures of the two coats of
arms and comments both positive and dimissive about what Minsk has done, see gazetaby.com/post/simvolicheskie-strasti-chto-ne-tak-s-belorusskim-g/160681/,
gazetaby.com/post/gosudarstvennyj-gerb-izmenyat-po-prosbe-grazhdan/160673/
and svaboda.org/a/30431026.html.)
It may be that some Belarusians, let
alone others, won’t even notice the change, but three groups will; and their
reactions will be important politically. First, Moscow will view this as yet more
evidence that Belarus is trying to escape Russia’s grasp and become part of
Europe, a small piece of evidence perhaps but a serious one.
Second, officials in Europe and the
West more generally will see this as an indication that Lukashenka is serious
in his pursuit of closer ties with the EU and the US and is prepared to take
steps in that direction, small steps perhaps but steps in the right direction
as far as their governments are concerned.
And third, Belarusians both in the
population and in the government will see it as an indication that Lukashenka
is prepared to make changes and may even feel compelled to do so. His
government explained the change as it has and the Soviet regime did as being at
the request of the people. That may be
more true now than it was in the past.
On the one hand, that may spark
fears among officials that the ice is melting and that Belarus is going to change
more fundamentally than just with a new map on its coat of arms. On the other,
it may lead the Belarusian opposition to press even harder for other changes,
including perhaps most immediately for a return to the flag of independence.
If either of those things happen,
Belarusian politics will be transformed; and the hopes many have had for a
Belarus truly independent of Moscow will be encouraged. How Moscow will react,
of course, remains to be seen and will likely be profoundly affected by how
Belarusians and the West view what some may dismiss as a meaningless move.
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