Threat of Russian Military Attack on Estonia Low Because of Likely NATO Response, Estonian Intelligence Service Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, February 13 – In its annual report on national security, the Estonian National Intelligence Servce says that “the threat of a military attack by Russia on Estonia is not great since Russia doesn’t want a war with NATO” but that that could change if one or more of several conditions obtained (valisluureamet.ee/pdf/raport-2020-en.pdf).

            If Moscow concluded that the escalation of its conflict with the West elsewhere threatened its vital interests, or if it drew incorrect conclusions about the situation such as underrating NATO’s readiness to respond, then, the Russian government could decide to carry out what it would view as a “preventive” strike against Estonia and her Baltic neighbors.

            This year’s 82-page report suggests that the international security situation has deteriorated over the last five years but says that “the main threat for Estonia as before comes from Russia, the leadership of which is taking aggressive actions against the democratic world order.”

            Russia’s military capacity is growing, the report continues, with forces abutting the border of Estonia and other NATO members often superior to those held by any other European member of the Western alliance.  And at the same time, it says that Russia is continuing to actively interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbors, including Estonia.

            According to the Estonian Intelligence Service, “the policy of the Kremlin up to now is defined by the stereotypes of the era of Stalinisn,” including the belief that conflict with the West is inevitable and that Moscow must militarize Russian society in order to be ready to repel Western “aggression.”