Coronavirus Pandemic May Help or Hurt Moscow in Ukraine

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 1 – Few doubt that the coronavirus pandemic and the economic turmoil it is producing will transform many countries and their relations with each other. But there is little agreement yet on just how these things will change, although there is much discussion about the possibilities.

            Two essays about Ukraine and Moscow’s relations with it in the future highlight these differences. The first, by Ukrainian commentator Vladimir Shevchuk, suggests that Putin is using the pandemic for “dangerous games” against Ukraine; the second, by Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, says that Ukraine could come out of this as the industrial heart of Europe.

            Putin has clearly used the pandemic to advance the argument that sanctions against Russia must be dropped at a time when all countries face a common enemy, Shevchuk says (apostrophe.ua/article/politics/foreign-policy/2020-04-30/putin-ispolzuet-koronavirus-dlya-opasnoy-igryi-protiv-ukrainyi/32517).

            He has pushed that idea not only in international settings but used pro-Russian politicians in Europe to step up their campaigns for going back to business as usual. But the Kremlin leader has done for than that: he has given aid to Italy not for humanitarian concerns but rather to exacerbate divisions within the EU and NATO, the Ukrainian analyst says.

            However, the most dangerous Putin game with respect to Ukraine that Moscow has played since the start of the pandemic is the promotion of what one can call “the Baltic scenario,” one in which the West would not recognize Moscow’s conquests in Ukraine as legitimate but would not allow them to get in the way of business as usual.

            Such a policy if the West accepts it would leave Ukraine in a significantly weakened position, Shevchuk says, because it would mean that the Western powers while giving lip service to Ukraine’s right to Crimea and the Donbass would treat Russian occupation of them as something that the West and Ukraine has to live with for some indeterminate time.

            If Shevchuk presents the pessimistic variant, Inozemtsev offers a more optimistic one, arguing that the current crisis gives Ukraine “a unique moment” for a breakthrough to become “the industrial base of Europe” (gordonua.com/publications/kak-ukraina-mozhet-vyigrat-ot-pandemii-koronavirusa-i-mirovogo-krizisa-1497834.html).

            There are two reasons for such a prediction, the Russian economist says. On the one hand, falling energy prices are going to ease the costs to Ukraine of developing its industrial base.  And on the other, Western suspicions of China mean Europe will be looking for new low-wage industrial centers. Ukraine could be it for the EU just as Mexico is likely to be for the US.

            Inozemtsev says that Europe will likely follow the American example with the French and British shifting their offshore industries out of China to somewhere less problematic. Ukraine is an obvious place if Kyiv does everything it can to make Ukrainian industry an attractive place for foreign investment.

            At a time when national borders are likely to become more not less important, there is little chance that Ukraine will become part of the EU. But it has an association agreement with that group of countries and it can attract interest from London now that Britain is on its way to leaving the EU.

            There are no guarantees that this scenario will happen, Inozemtsev says; but there are three factors Kyiv needs to take into consideration to make it more likely and thus give that country a better future and one less dependent on Moscow. First, as important as it is to liberalize landholding in the agricultural sector, Ukraine is too large to rely on agriculture alone.

            Second, “not one industrial nation has achieved success in isolation. All of them, in Asia, Europe or America, are tightly cooperated or even coordinated in their work with post-industrial powers.”  And third, for countries like Ukraine on the frontier “between Europe and non-Europe, the most important task politically and economically is to use industry to reinforce that choice.

            “If this chance is missed,” Inozemtsev concludes, “this will be a loss both for the Europeans and for the Ukrainians.”