Births Exceed Deaths Across North Caucasus but by Far Less than Ever Before

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 8 – In only 18 of Russia’s more than 80 federal subjects did births exceed deaths in 2019 with population growth not relying on immigration alone. Most of those 18 were non-Russian, and many were in the North Caucasus where Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Daghestan retained the top three places in terms of natural population growth.

            But in all three of them as in the 18 others, the excess of births over deaths continued to fall. In 2018 in Chechnya, there were 18.1 more births per 1,000 than deaths in; but a year later, that figure had fallen to 14.7. For Ingushetia, these figures were 15 and 12.8; and for Daghestan, 12.8 and 9.9 (doshdu.com/v-chechne-ingushetii-i-dagestane-sokratilsja-prirost-naselenija/).

            Some of these falloffs reflect modernization but much of them are the product of the difficult economic situation the peoples of this region now face. If these precipitous declines continue and they are expected to, the population of the Russian Federation will continue to fall unless it is able to attract more immigrants from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. 

            They also mean that the Muslim share of the population of the country will increase, albeit at a slower rate than has been the case in recent decades.