Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 6 – Today, hundreds of
Kazakhs came into the streets of the two capitals and all other major cities of
that country to demand a credit amnesty, a reversal of privatization into the
hands of foreigners, and the liberation of political prisoners, the broadest
such wave of protests in years and one that reflects the impact of the pandemic
there.
The demonstrators went into the
streets at the call of émigré political leader Mukhtar Ablyazov, the head of
the Kazakhstan Democratic Choice movement and received implicit backing from
international human rights groups who said the authorities had used the
pandemic as a smokescreen for further restrictions on the population (currenttime.tv/a/protests-in-kazakhstan/30656055.html).
Kazakhs have been increasingly
restive because the successor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kasym-Jomart Tokayev,
has not delivered the changes that many expected; and that feeling, observers
say, has intensified as a result of the restrictions imposed to fight the
pandemic and the time Kazakhs have had to reflect (ia-centr.ru/experts/svyatoslav-antonov/gulmira-ileuova-kak-izmenitsya-kazakhstanskoe-obshchestvo-posle-karantina/).
On the one hand, the authorities in
Kazakhstan do not yet face a systemic challenge: they have sufficient resources
to suppress any demonstrations. But on
the other, this challenge because it reflects the views of large swaths of the population
is raising concerns about the future stability of the Tokayev government.
One indication of that is a proposal
from Moscow’s Center for the Study of Social-Political Processes on the Post-Soviet
Space. It calls for Tokayev and the opposition to come together for a
roundtable discussion to negotiate their differences (ia-centr.ru/experts/iats-mgu/ekspert-o-protestakh-6-iyunya-vlasti-i-obshchestvu-nuzhno-sest-za-stol-peregovorov/).
Nur-Sultan is unlikely to agree to
that; but the protesters are certain to be encouraged. And consequently, the
protests that echoed through the streets of Kazakhstan’s cities this weekend
are likely to swell in size in the coming days, possibly triggering a political
crisis, regardless of whether the authorities use massive force to suppress
them.
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