Were Putin to Invade Belarus, Russia Would Become One Large Khabarovsk, Solonin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, August 15 – Most analysts discussing the possibility of Russian military intervention in Belarus have focused on what that would mean in Belarus and internationally, but Mark Solonin, a Russian specialist on military affairs now living in Estonia, says Vladimir Putin won’t move because of what it would happen inside Russia.

            If Putin won support by invading and occupying Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, a similar move in Belarus would have exactly the opposite effect, the analyst says. Instead of leading to an upsurge of patriotic enthusiasm, such a move would spark dozens of Khabarovsk-size protests across the country (echo.msk.ru/blog/solonin/2693187-echo/).

            “An army fights (or doesn’t) on the basis of the country which has created it,” Solonin says. “How would today’s embittered heartland react to a sudden influx of caskets? If that isn’t clear, then look at Khabarovsk or speak with any taxi driver outside of Moscow.” Russian state television could do little to prevent that.

            This prospect, the analyst continues, is especially likely for several reasons besides the anger Russians feel at the Kremlin’s pursuit of any foreign policy goals while neglecting them. Belarus isn’t Ukraine: it isn’t anti-Russian as Ukraine was, and it has a large and effective military. If Russia invades, Belarusians will fight and there will be far more Russian deaths.

            Moreover, in contrast to Ukraine six years ago, Belarusians are doing relatively well; and even though most of them speak Russian, they know that what they have is because they are living in Belarus. They aren’t going to welcome Russian invaders as some in Crimea did; they are going to fight.

            Moreover, expectations that the Belarusian army would disintegrate are mistaken. “An army and the OMON are not one and the same thing.” Military commanders aren’t going to betray their country because they could never survive within it were they to go over to the Russians. Belarusians would never accept them if they did.

            And finally, Solonin says, there is one additional factor now: Donald Trump and his pursuit of re-election.  Trump “came to power under the slogan, ‘Make America Great Again.’” He wants to stay president, “and therefore there can be no talk about Trump agreeing to accept an armed invasion ‘as an internal affair of a Union state.’”