Caspian Sea Water Level has Fallen to Lowest Level in Last 400 Years, Moscow Scholars Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar.15 – The water level of the Caspian Sea has now fallen to the lowest level at any time in the last 400 years, inflicting serious ecological, economic and even political consequences on the littoral states, according to Sergey Zhiltsov of the Diplomatic Academy and Andrey Kostyanoy of the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

            The decline which is now taking place between nine and 35 centimeters a year has hit the northern portions of the sea and thus affected the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan especially hard, but it is now so large that it is affecting the southern littoral countries of Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan (ng.ru/dipkurer/2026-03-15/11_9453_problem.html).

            These countries have seen the access to their ports and shorelines change dramatically for the worse, reducing their ability to make use of the Caspian as they had in the past. The gulfs of these three countries have declined in size from 30 to as much as 95 percent of what they were in the past, declines that exceed the ability to reverse the situation by dredging. 

            But the falling water levels of the Caspian have affected more than just the littoral states, the two Moscow scholars say. They have had a direct impact on the ability of other countries to use north-south shipping corridors, something that has had a major impact on Russian-Iranian commerce.

            In addition, as the water level has fallen, so too has the ability of all these countries to extract oil from the seabed. As a result, all of the countries directly concerned are now focusing on projects to slow the decline of the level of the sea and to invest more heavily in the updating of port facilities so as to be able to maintain links even as the waters fall.

            Current projects of the Caspian Sea water levels are currently extremely pessimistic, the two scholars say, with most hovering between a decline of the sea’s level by 20 to 21 meters (65 to 70 feet) by the end of this century. If that happens, most of the sea’s ports now will be far inland and not able to function.

            For background on this issue, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/03/caspian-seas-declining-water-levels.html,  windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/09/caspian-sea-dying-with-catastrophic.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/09/caspian-seas-declining-water-level.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/07/falling-caspian-water-levels-cuts-into.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/06/drying-up-of-caspian-hitting-kazakhstan.html and the sources cited therein.