What Happens in Ukraine and Whether Sanctions are Maintained Determine When Moscow Can Attack Baltics, Lithuanian Department of State Security Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar.9 – What happens in Ukraine and whether the West maintains sanctions on Russia or not determines when Moscow will be in a position to attack Lithuania and her Baltic neighbors, according to an assessment contained in the annual report of the Lithuanian Department of State Security.

            If the war continues at current level and if sanctions are maintained, the report says, Russia’s ability to launch an attack on the Baltics or elsewhere in eastern Europe will be limited, the report says (vsd.lt/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-GR-LT-El_NAUJAS.pdf discussed at novayagazeta.ee/articles/2026/03/09/rossiia-mozhet-nachat-voennuiu-operatsiiu-v-stranakh-baltii-cherez-god-dva-posle-sniatiia-sanktsii-i-zakliucheniia-mira-v-ukraine-razvedka-litvy-news).

            But if the conflict is frozen and sanctions are eased or eliminated, Moscow will be able to rebuild its forces and be able to attack to the West in three to five years; and if there is a peace treaty and sanctions are lifted, then that period will be reduced to one to two years, according to the Lithuanian intelligence service.

            The Lithuanian projections are perhaps the clearest indication of what the end of the war in Ukraine will mean for others and the way in which the maintenance of sanctions of their removal will affect the timing of a new Russian move toward the West.  As such, they speak to a broader issue than just the security of Lithuania.