Three Trends Exacerbated by Putin’s War Suggest Russia isn’t Headed toward a New Federalism or Disintegration but Rather toward Becoming a Failed State, Luzin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 11 – Pavel Luzin has long argued that Russia isn’t headed toward disintegration because it lacks the kind of conflicts among organized groups that are required for such an outcome and instead had put his hopes that effective decolonization would happen by means of the reconstitution of a genuine federalism there.

            But now, the Russian political scientist at the Fletcher School says that three aspects of Russian political culture that have been exacerbated by Putin’s war in Ukraine currently cast doubt on that second possibility and that he believes Russia may instead toward becoming a failed state unless Russians change their attitudes (region.expert/no-unity/).

            First of all, Luzin says, “Russian society has completely abandoned its own political agency, leading to a situation in which there are few “individual or collective political actors capable of formulating answers to questions like what kind of Russia do they need? Why do they need it at all? And why do they need neighbors and the people around them?”

            Second and related to this, “Russians couldn’t care less about what is happening in other regions.” They ignored the Prigozhin rising and the Ukrainian occupation of Bryansk Oblast. That, of course, has “a positive consequence” in that it “dispels the myth that Russians will never agree to the loss of the occupied territories of Ukraine.”

            And third, “there has been a clear erosion of one of the most important if not indeed the most important hierarchies – that of the capital and the regions. “Not only has Moscow had to compete with domestic migration flows with other cities … but Russian aggression has further exacerbated the capital’s unattractiveness as a place for a better life.”

            “When a country’s center loses its ideal role and vertical ties weaken,” Luzin continues, “then centrifugal forces can take hold” and disintegration can occur, although it “doesn’t necessarily have to occur along administrative-territorial and/or ethno-cultural boundaries” as many now assume.

            Instead, he argues, this “institutional disintegration” can lead to the country’s transformation into a failed state.” That is an option few are exploring or even think even possible in the case of a country with nuclear weapons. But having such weapons didn’t stop the USSR from falling apart and likely can’t prevent Russia from becoming a failed state.

               More than two decades ago, the author of this review of Luzin’s article published an essay entitled “Russia as a Failed State” in the Baltic Defense Review in which he made that and other points about the nature of the Russian state at the start of Putin’s reign  (bdcol.ee/files/docs/bdreview/bdr-2004-12-sec3-art3.pdf).

            Luzin’s article now is a sign that what was certainly true then and what Putin with some success fought against is again true now, the result in large measure of the Kremlin leader’s own actions and his failure to understand the nature of his own country and its history despite how often he talks about it.