Ethnic Russian Fertility Rate is Now 1.1, Half of Replacement Level of 2.2 and Below Figure of 1.3 for All Residents of the Russian Federation, Nikiforov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 12 – The fertility rate for ethnic Russians has now sunk to 1.1 children per woman per lifetime, far below the replacement level of 2.2 and even below the figure of 1.3 for all residents of the country whose non-Russian component still has far more children per woman per lifetime than do ethnic Russians, Oleg Nikiforov says.

            The editor of the NG-Energiya supplement of Nezavisimaya Gazeta says that that raises questions not only about who will pay for the pensions of older Russians but also about “how many people should live in Russia” and whether immigration or reliance on increased economic efficiency via robotics is the best way forward (ng.ru/style/2026-03-12/16_9452_style.html).

            In Russia, Nikiforov says, “there is a reluctance to write about the complex relationship between the titular nation and immigrants. Instead, there is a preference for downplaying or even completely ignoring the existence of this issue. But it undeniably exists” as any conversation with a hairdresser or taxi driver will confirm.

            Hairdressers routinely say they won’t hire anyone who doesn’t look “European” lest customers go elsewhere; and taxi drivers insist that migrants working as drivers are less safe than are Russians presumably because the standards for getting a license are thought to be lower in non-Russian countries than in Russia.

            To be sure, Nikiforov says, “this ‘everyday nationalism’ is most likely rooted in inadequate professional training and difficulties in communication among speakers of various languages.” But it is also the product of broader socio-cultural changes in Russia, changes that are pushing down the fertility rates to the point of crisis.