Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 9 – As a result
of Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine, Russia faces three large sets of problems
with the outside world, with Ukraine, and with itself that will take decades if
not generations to overcome and limit its ability to develop as many of its
citizens had hoped, according to Ivan Kurilla, a professor at Volgograd State
University.
Not surprisingly, most people are
focusing on immediate problems, the international relations specialist writes
today, and as a result are paying less attention than they should to the
longer-lasting consequences which “not only the current but the next ruler of
Russia” will face (top.rbc.ru/politics/09/09/2014/947812.shtml?fb_action_ids=10154482223370018&fb_action_types=og.recommends).
The
ceasefire in the Donbas, Kurilla says, “cannot resolve the problems which
underlie the Ukrainian conflict.” That will take enormous time, “possibly
decades or the lives of entire generations.” And to resolve them will require “not
military victory but the slow work” of social and political change.
That
in turn means, the Volgograd professor says, that the Russian government will
face several tasks for a long time whether it likes it or not as the direct result
of what the Kremlin has now done in Ukraine.
The first of these concerns
relations with the outside world, “with international organizations, with
Europe, the United States and even with China.” Over the last six months, he
notes, “Russia has not simply fallen under economic sanctions but cost itself
the great part of the diplomatic conquests of the last two decades and awoken a
new wave of distrust” toward it.
Its rulers and people should “expect a strengthening of
European security structures openly directed at restraining Russia.” The
creation of a NATO rapid reaction force is only the first step in which the
Western alliance is going to move.
In response, Moscow must seek to “save what remains of
Russia’s international ties and retain at least the level of cooperation which
now remains.” There is a lot that it has retained, “but the losses are large.” Then
Moscow must seek a way of integrating
Russia into these structures, something some in Europe are interested
in.
The
second group of issues involves Ukraine, Kurilla says. There are economic,
political and trust issues that must be addressed even though there is now “mutual
hatred.” Ukraine is not going to forgive
or forget either the intervention or the territorial losses that it has been
forced to yield, and no conceivable Russian government is going to give back
Crimea.
There
are many things Russia will have to do to try to improve relations with Kyiv,
and it is even possible “in the distant political future” that Moscow will be prepared
for “a discussion of a special status” for Crimea, one that would recognize
Ukraine’s “special role” there “but only in the cultural and economic spheres.”
And
“the third circle of issues,” Kurillov argues, “the relations within Russian
society and between the state and society” are “both the most complicated and
the most immediate.” Russian propaganda
has convinced a majority of Russians not only that fascists have seized power
in Ukraine but that there is “a fifth column” within their own country.
“The
search for enemies and the striving for unanimity is giving birth to archaic
models in politics and culture and threatening the future of the country,” the
Volgograd scholar says.
The
weakening of this propaganda will help, but its impact and the appearance in
Russia of heroes living and dead from the fighting in Ukraine – funerals for
the latter are becoming heavily politicized -- and of refugees from Ukraine
will continue to shape Russian attitudes well into the future, often in ways
that threaten social and political stability.
The
government, either the current one or its successor, is going to have to
address this and introduce certain “corrections” in relations between itself and
the population. “Sooner or later,” he
says, [it] will have to restore conditions for civil dialogue and return to the
role of arbiter” among groups rather than pursuing its own goals and demonizing
its opponents.
The
leadership that will come to power after the current one, Kurilla says, will be
forced to eat the dish prepared by the current one in Ukraine. In doing so, it
will suffer “a portion” of popular anger as it has to acknowledge mistakes and
thus appears in the eyes of the population as a denigrator of the nation’s
history.
But,
Kurillov concludes, “this is the only path of restoring trust in the state, not
only in international politics but and this is important from the citizens” of
Russia itself.
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