Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 25 – At a time
when Vladimir Putin has made what was earlier unthinkable into reality, it
would be a major mistake to ignore a recent statement by Vladimir Zhirinovsky
about how Ukraine will be reduced in size or even eliminated altogether in the coming
years, according to Andrey Illarionov.
In an article today on “Svobodnaya
zona,” the Russian commentator says that those who have dismissed the often
outrageous remarks of Zhirinovsky in the past have regretted it because
stripped of his often hyperbolic adjectives and adverbs, they have often served
as earlier warnings about the direction Putin subsequently takes (http://bit.ly/1psFRvR).
In
an interview to the German newspaper “Bild” this week, Illarionov points out,
Zhirinovsky said that Ukraine “in its current form does not have a future. If
the process of the disintegration of the country continues at its former
tempos, then already by 2019, Ukraine as an independent state will not exist (bild.de/politik/ausland/wladimir-schirinowski/im-interview-die-ukraine-hat-keine-zukunft-mehr-37685694.bild.html).
Because
of what the Russian parliamentarian describes as the anti-Russian policy of the
Ukrainian government, Kyiv has infuriated Russian speakers in Ukraine and thus
created “with its own hands” the crisis it now faces. Russia has claims against its territory as a
result, as do for historical reasons Poland, Romania and Hungary.
“Five
years from now,” Zhirinovsky says, “in place of Ukraine will be six or seven
regions with a population of ten to twelve million people. And that,” he
continues, “is the most optimistic scenario” for the part of the world.
Illarionov
argues that everyone should pay attention to Zhirinovsky’s words, “not of
course because they reflect the real situation of the majority of ethnic
Russians and/or Russian speakers of Ukraine toward the Ukrainian state … but
because Zhirinovsky … is fulfilling the most important public function of
revealing the character of thought and the direction of preparation for action
of the Supreme Ruler,” Vladimir Putin.
And
the need to take Zhirinovsky seriously in this case is all the more true
because the ideas he shared with “Bild” are ones that he has promoted
before. In March of this year, for
example, he send messages to Warsaw, Budapest and Bucharest proposing the “de
facto partition of Ukraine” (tvp.info/14506221/duma-do-polskiego-msz-podzielmy-ukraine).
According to Zhirinovsky at that time, if the
others took their share of Ukraine and Russia annexed Crimea, Sevastopol, and
the eight oblasts of the so-called “Novorossiya,” what would remain of Ukraine
would be nine oblasts plus Kyiv on the territory of which now live
approximately 14.7 million people.
Another
reason for thinking that Zhirinovsky is speaking for more than himself is that
two weeks ago, an identical idea about the partition of Ukraine was floated by
the Czech radio station Impuls, a reflection of the thinking of pro-Putin
Prague leader Vaclav Klaus (zpravy.idnes.cz/klaus-o-situaci-na-ukrajine-ddy-/domaci.aspx?c=A140909_150517_domaci_cen).
Somewhat
before that, in May 2014, Illarionov points out, Hungarian Prime Minister
Viktor Urban made some similar comments about ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine (mk.ru/politics/2014/05/13/premerministr-vengrii-orban-prizval-dat-avtonomiyu-ukrainskim-vengram.html).
What all these figures have in common is that they are operating under a “common”
political and ideological conception long pushed by Putin. Speaking at the Russia-NATO Council meeting
in Bucharest on April 2, 2008, the Russian president said the following:
“In Ukraine one third of the population are ethnic
Russians. Of 45 million people even according to the official census, there are
17 million Russians. There are regions where only Russians live, such as
Crimea: 90 percent are Russians. Ukraine in general is a very complex country.
Ukraine in that form in which it exists today was one which was created in
Soviet times. It received territory from Poland after World War II, from
Czechoslovakia and Romania and even now not all the border problems on the
Black Sea with Romania have been solved.”
“This means,” Putin continued, “that [Ukraine] received enormous territories from Russia on
the east and south. This is a very complex state formation. And if one introduces
there the NATO problem and other problems, this in general can put on the brink
of existence its statehood as such.
Consequently, it is necessary to act very, very carefully. We do not
have any right of veto … but I want that all of us when we decide on issues of
this kind understand that we also have our own interests. Well, 17 million
Russians live in Ukraine. Who can tell us that we do not have any interests
there? The south, the south of Ukraine is completely [Russian]; there live only
Russians” (inosmi.ru/world/20080418/240876.html).
“Thus,” Illarionov says, “Putin’s
strategic goal, the liquidation of contemporary Ukraine has remained unchanged at
a minimum since the spring of 2008, which by the way does not leave a stone on
a stone of the infantile commentaries of certain Western observers (like former
US ambassador to Russia M. McFaul) about the annexation of Crimea as “a sudden,
emotional and instinctive reaction of Putin to the Maidan revolution and the
flight of Yanukovich.”
“The fresh statements of
V.Zhirinovsky, V. Klaus, and V. Urban are valuable,” Illarionov continues, “because
they shed light not only on the strategic goals of V. Putin” but also on his “active
measures” with other members of what is becoming “the Putin international.”
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