Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 11 – Vladimir Putin’s
Anti-Maidan movement has received a great deal of media attention, but it will
not be any more capable of stopping change and even revolutionary change in
Russia once the number of dissatisfied Russians reaches “critical mass,”
according to Dmitry Bykov.
That has not yet happened, the
Moscow commentator says, but the number of such people is becoming ever larger,
something that Putin’s high approval ratings do not contradict because those are
“an indicator not so much of love as of inertia” (nv.ua/opinion/bykov/rossiyu-zhdet-bolshoy-perelom-38326.html).
On the one hand and in the short
term, that inertia may be extremely destructive, he argues. But on the other
and in the longer term, it may make a positive contribution because it means
that there is still “a chance that the situation in the country can be resolved
without a civil war” because few will are ready to take to either side of the
barricades.
“Political changes,” Bykov reminds, “take
place inside people’s heads and not in the ratings or even not in the squares.” In Russia, the number of people who feel
appalled at what is happening to themselves and their country and are ashamed
is growing. “The turning point will come when the majority is fed up with
living as it does now.”
According to
the Moscow poet, the amount of radicalization has been exaggerated by the
media. “As a rule,” he writes, people who talk and write are radicalized more
than those who simply live.” Life and work have the effect of causing people to
focus on immediate things rather than the grand questions many commentators
like to pose.
If people are
working, they will come to terms with things, but the tragedy in Russia is that
there is not enough real and creative work, and consequently far more are being
radicalized than would otherwise be the case.
Any society can be split, Bykov says, if it is offered “a
choice between mutually exclusive and non-realizable things … between freedom
and order, between physical and mental work, between the country and the city …
But there are things which unite a country above all such disagreements such as
law, respect for the personality, and a desire to succeed.”
Under
Putin, “all this has been destroyed” and that has happened “intentionally in
order to distract people.” As Gogol
pointed out, Bykov says, even the split between Westernizers and Slavophiles
was false just as “all contemporary dichotomies are false” as well. That makes “all
scenarios equally probable,” something encouraging and frightening at one and
the same time.
But
one thing is clear, he concludes: Russia faces a future that will not be stable
but rather highly unstable and even revolutionary. Out of that new time of
troubles, something new is likely to be born. But whether it will be good or
evil is at present absolutely impossible to predict.
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