Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 4 – Even if
Vladimir Putin succeeded by some miracle in his current effort to get Western
sanctions on his country lifted for his aggression in Ukraine, Konstantin
Borovoy says, there are six reasons why even that would not prevent the looming
humanitarian catastrophe in Russia.
The head of Russia’s Western Choice
Party says that the first of these lies in the nature of Western sanctions
themselves. “Their impact is more symbolic” than real because there are alternative
channels for outside nvestment there and the market continues to work. The
reason they appear to be working is that no one has any interest in investing
in Russia now (nr2.com.ua/News/world_and_russia/Gipoteticheskoe-snyatie-sankciy-s-Rossii-ne-spaset-ee-107522.html).
Second,
he suggests, the counter-sanctions that the Putin regime introduced in
response, are “more serious” in their impact than are Western sanctions. “The absence of competitive goods in the market
is destroying competition” and leading to price increases that are putting many
things out of reach of ordinary Russians.
Third,
Borovoy points to the shift in Russia’s budgetary priorities. “The militarization
of the budget and its stress on the force functions of the state are the result
of all economic problems.” If the population were in fact satisfied with the
current situation, such shifts would not be necessary.
Fourth,
there is “the serious factor of corruption and protectionism.” The impact of these is “becoming ever more
notable” in Russian government financing. Having to reduce pensions reflects “the
ineffectiveness of the state itself,” especially given the way in which Putin’s
elite enriched itself earlier.
Fifth,
Borovoy points out, Russia lacks “strong independent business.” If such businesses existed, they could
compensate for many of the shortcomings of the state, but the state has made
their presence in Russia almost impossible and thus deprived Russia of an
important motor of development.
And
sixth, even if sanctions were lifted, the Russian opposition figure points out,
that would do nothing to affect the current declines in prices for oil and
other raw materials on which the Putin regime has relied in the past. Consequently, expecting a miracle recovery in
Russia even if sanctions are lifted is an exercise in denial of the obvious.
Sanctions
may have allowed Putin to shift the blame to the West in the eyes of many
Russians – and even in the minds of some in the West itself – but the
fundamental drivers of Russia’s economic malaise were in play before sanctions
were introduced and will remain even if they are eventually lifted.
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