Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 8 – “The indecisiveness
of the US leadership has given the armed forces of the Russian Federation the
chance not only to bomb Syrians” opposed to Asad “but to begin a land campaign
jointly with Asad’s forces,” a development that weakens any effort to defeat
ISIS, according to Andrey Illarionov.
The Russian analyst says that the “allied
coalition” created by Moscow, Damascus and Tehran now has six participants:
Iran, Russia, Syria’s Bashar Asad, the Shiite government of Iraq, Hezbollah,
and also ISIS (nv.ua/opinion/illarionov/putin-i-asad-perehodjat-v-nastuplenie-72947.html).
And in practical terms, “the only
opponent of this coalition, which is now being subject to attack from the sides
of almost all the participants o this coalition (except Iraq, but from the side
of Russia, 55 strikes out of 57) are the subdivisions of the Syrian moderate
and Islamic opposition who oppose Asad’s regime and have receive training and
arms from the US.”
But, Illarionov continues, “the US
president is playing a double (if not to say traitorous) role in relation to
the Syrian opposition, refusing the latter any help, not acting against the Russian
military operation in Syria, and as before repeating that he can cooperate with
Putin and Iran and hopes for such cooperation.”
That in turn means, the Russian
analyst says, that Barack Obama is now part of “the allied coalition” Moscow,
Damascus and Tehran have assembled and are directing at the moderates who
oppose Asad.
Illarionov traces the moves since
the visit of Iranian General Kasem Suleymani to Moscow in July that have
resulted in “a new Iranian-Russian alliance in support of Asad” and the
meetings between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Iran’s Ayatollah
Khamenei subsequently.
Russian officials in September put
out the word that Russia was getting involved in Syria and the campaign against
ISIS as a way of ending Moscow’s international isolation over Ukraine, but it
is clear, Illarionov says, that Moscow is not fighting ISIS but rather backing
Asad against his opponents.
According to the Turkish prime
minister, only two of the first 57 Russian air strikes were directed against
ISIS. The other 55 – or more than 95 percent in all – were directed against
groups opposed to Asad and his Shiite regime.
Initially, American officials were
uncertain as to whether Moscow was deliberately targeting Asad’s opponents or
whether Russian forces simply couldn’t distinguish between them and ISIS. “But
now,” Illarionov says, “American officials are certain that since September 30,
Russia is directly attacking rebels supported by the CIA who represent the
greatest threat to Asad’s regime.”
They add that Moscow has two goals: strengthening
Asad and sending a warning message to Washington not to interfere. Both work to the advantage of the
Russian-Shiite alliance: if the moderate opposition to Asad is destroyed, the
Americans will not “cooperate with more radical groups and will be forced to
agree to Asad’s retention of power.”
Some American officials are telling
journalists that “they are seeking ways to further support the opposition,”
Illarionov continues. “But according to their words, Obama does not want to
begin a proxy war with Russia or allow Moscow to divert the US from its
struggle with ISIS.”
Unfortunately, he concludes, “as a
result of Russia’s attacks, the White House will find it more difficult to
control the situation” and prevent advanced weaponry from falling into the
hands of groups that may act against American interests. But for the time being, “the Syrian
government army has gone over to the attack” supported by Russian air power.
No comments:
Post a Comment