Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 29 – In what may be
an irony of fate, Maksim Gatsak says, the Orthodox Church in Belarus could gain
autocephalous, that is, independent status, even sooner than its counterpart in
Ukraine, precisely because such a move may come more quickly in an
authoritarian state than in a more democratic one.
But if the Orthodox Church in
Belarus, now part of and subordinate to the Moscow Patriarchate, does achieve
such status, that will have the effect not only of making Ukrainian Orthodox
autocephaly more likely but also making Belarus more independent from the Kremlin
and its “Russian world.”
At the same time, Gatsak says, the role
that the Belarusian state would play in promoting such autocephaly, a role that
would involve increasing still further the power of the government over
religious organizations, could in the end have the effect of leading to the
loss by such a church of that independent status were there to be regime change
in Minsk
In a commentary on the religious
affairs website, Krynica.info, Gatsak argues that a major factor holding back
the achievement of autocephaly in Ukraine is precisely its “democratic regime
with a more or less developed division of powers, regional
self-administration,” and the existence of competitive elections (krynica.info/ru/2016/08/25/avtokefaliya-pri-avtoritarizme/).
As a result, Kyiv doesn’t have the
power to “force the various Orthodox Churches to unity via the establishment of
a single national Church that would be recognized by the Orthodox world.” Instead, it is likely to continue for some
time to have three independent Orthodox Churches – the Ukrainian Orthodox
Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow
Patriarchate, and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church.
The first and third are not in union
with world Orthodoxy, and the second is subordinate to Moscow, a situation
which creates problems for Ukrainians and Ukraine, Gatsak says. “But even under conditions of the conflict
with Russia, the Kyiv authorities are not capable of ignoring democratic
procedures” and pushing toward unity.
Belarus would appear to have another
advantage over Ukraine in that it is far from clear what would be the
organizational basis of a united autocephalous Orthodox church there, while in
Belarus, there is no question that it would consist in the first instance of the
hierarchs of the existing Orthodox Church in Belarus now subordinate to the
Moscow Patriarchate.
Indeed, the expert on church affairs
says, the way in which Minsk has dealt with the alternative Belarusian
Autocephalous Orthodox Church since the 1990s shows that the country’s
political regime is not prepared to tolerate the emergence of any second
Orthodox denomination in the country.
It is likely, however, Gatsak
continues, that there are people in the Belarusian regime who would like to
have an autocephalous church, “to weaken Russian control over events in
Belarus, to reduce the ideological influence of Moscow and also to increase its
own control and ideological influence.”
If Lukashenka and his regime decide
to pursue autocephaly, it would not be difficult to find some hierarchs within
the Orthodox church in Belarus, assemble a synod or assembly of the Belarusian
church and declare themselves to be autocephalous. The Russian church would not
like that, but it probably couldn’t block it without severe damage to itself.
According to Gatsak, “the
establishment of an autocephalous church independent from Moscow would very
likely receive the support of many opposition organizations and mass media
outlets.” And it would not be opposed by rank and file Belarusians most of
whom, the analyst says, feel themselves far removed from such church questions.
And such “an integral and united
Belarusian Orthodox church would have a simpler time than would Ukraine of
obtaining recognition from the Orthodox world and from Constantinople in
particular.”
At the same time, pro-Russian
organizations, including “’the Cossacks’ and military patriotic clubs” together
with the Kremlin and the Russian Orthodox Church in Russia would oppose such a
move and might use it as an occasion to dispatch to Belarus “’little green men’”
in a reprise of what it did in Crimea.
In sum, Gatsak says, “the existence
of an authoritarian regime in Belarus to a significant degree makes the
possibility of creating and gaining recognition for an autocephalous Belarusian
Orthodox Church, but the active and directing role of the powers that be in this
issue could lead to major negative consequences.”
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