Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 19 – Twenty-five
years ago today, the Soviet coup plotters said they were acting to ensure the
territorial integrity of the USSR, something that, when their effort collapsed,
happened within four months, leading many in Russia and the West to conclude
that the Soviet Union disintegrated because of the coup.
At the same time, those who went to the
Russian White House to oppose the plotters said they were acting to ensure that
Russia would become a democracy instead of a dictatorship of the nomenklatura,
a claim that, after the coup collapsed, both they and many in the West assumed
was now ensured with not much additional effort required.
Neither of these interpretations, although
they continue to shape opinion about the events of August 1991, is correct. The
Soviet Union was on the way to disintegration long before the coup: It might
have accelerated things, but it did not cause it. And the success of those who opposed the coup
did not represent the defeat of the nomenklatura or the triumph of democracy.
The USSR was on its way to
disintegration and would have come apart even if there had been no coup and
counter-coup in Moscow. Within hours of the
start of the coup, the three occupied Baltic countries were on their way to
international recognition of de facto and not just de jure independence.
But they were not alone: Across the
Soviet space, sometimes driven by popular movements like Rukh in Ukraine or the
Peoples Fronts in Belarus and Azerbaijan and sometimes by the calculations of
party leaders that they could get out from under Moscow’s control, the 11
non-Russian republics were already on the march to independence well before
August 1991.
Those who orchestrated the coup knew
that or they wouldn’t have acted, but they demonstrated that they would have
failed to keep the country together even if they had succeeded. After all, a
collection of security officers unprepared to kill either Gorbachev or Yeltsin
could hardly be expected to maintain power by drowning the country in blood.
Had that happened, the USSR would
have dissolved likely along Yugoslavia lines. But it would have dissolved. And when the coup failed, the weakness of
Moscow was so obvious that the Russians and all the non-Russians realized they
had to take things into their own hands lest someone try that again.
In short, there would have been 12 “newly
independent states” or perhaps even more and three Baltic countries which would
have recovered their independence in the fall of 1991 or the winter of
1991/1992. The incompetence of the coup plotters ensured that this process was
less bloody: it and they did nothing to cause it or stop it.
The same thing is true about the
widespread assumption that the defeat of the August 1991 coup was a triumph of
democracy over the nomenklatura and security agencies. On the one hand, the number of people who
came to the defense of the Russian White House was microscopic, a mere handful
in a country of almost 300 million people.
And on the other, while many who did
come were animated by democratic ideals, most of their leaders sprang from the
CPSU nomenklatura or even the security agencies. Yeltsin himself had resigned from
the party but he had grown up as a party man.
And in that he was hardly alone.
As a result, when the coup was defeated,
what happened all too quickly was that members of the old nomenklatura and the
security agencies, often declaring they had changed sides, moved into positions
of power and subverted whatever chance Russia might have had to become a real
democracy.
If that wasn’t clear in early 1992,
it was certainly obvious in 1993 when Yeltsin fired on the parliament and then
declared war on Chechnya. And it has
become even more obvious since 2000 when Putin blew up the apartment buildings
and launched another war on Chechnya, followed by wars against Georgia and
Ukraine.
Unfortunately, many in the West were
more interested in declaring victory than in helping Russia and the other
countries to make a real transition to democracy. And many in Russia accepted the declarations
of former communists and former KGB officers as genuine rather than as tactical
moves to retain power.
If that wasn’t clear in early 1992,
it became obvious by the mid-1990s with the rise of the state-enriched
oligarchs and the new old security agencies and especially with the
installation of a KGB officer as president who in a rare display of honesty
talked about his role and that of its fellows as “a special operation.”
Those who did stand up for democracy
at the Russian White House in August 1991 deserve to be remembered with honor,
but those who failed to pay attention to what really happened and who continue
do assert that the coup caused the demise of the USSR or that it guaranteed
democracy certainly do not.
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