Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 11 – Unless the
massive purges Moscow is conducting in Daghestan destroy the current system of
corrupt ties, a task that may be beyond their capacity, these moves won’t
guarantee the future economic success of the republic and may in the short term
make the situation worse.
On the one hand, experts say, if the
purges succeed in forcing Makhachkala to report honestly what is going on, the
new more accurate figures may show that the economy there is doing even worse
than anyone suspects. And on the other, putting new people in place is not, as
past attempts have shown, a guarantee that the problems in Daghestan will be
overcome.
Irina Starodubrovskaya, a regional
specialist at the Geydar Institute, tells Kavkaz-Uzel that in her view, Moscow’s
current effort to destroy corruption in Daghestan “will lead to serious
conflicts and will hardly be crowned by success (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/316364/).
Two other experts with whom that news agency spoke agree.
Natalnya Zubarevich, a specialist on
regional economics at Moscow State University, says that the real situation in
Daghestan “is much worse than one might conclude on the basis of
statistics. Makhachkala reports far
higher levels of income and far lower unemployment than anyone thinks are
correct.
While statistics
for all North Caucasus republics are problematic, the Moscow scholar says, they
are especially unreliable in the case of Daghestan making any assessment of
just how bad things are now and how much they might improve. In her view, the
economy matters because of budgetary stringencies in Moscow, but the real
reasons for the purge are political.
The Kremlin wants “to show that the
federal authorities are prepared to struggle with corruption.” What is going on
in Daghestan can be used in support of such propaganda. But, Zubarevich says, one should not confuse
that with reality or changes in reality on the ground in that republic.
The measures taken so far “ do not
guarantee an improvement in the situation” there, she says. “What will happen next? Will this give a push
to the socio-economic development of the republic.” As far as that is
concerned, Zubarevich says, she is “a great pessimist” because arrests and
convictions aren’t enough by themselves to change the system
But even more important, there is no
clear way “to improve the socio-economic development of a republic in which
there is no investment and in which there are very few quality work places.” That is what Daghestan is today; and unless
something unexpected happens, that is what it will be in the future as well.
Economist Mikhail Delyagin. Who heads
the Institute of the Problems of Globalization, agrees, adding that in his
experience, it is even more difficult to estimate the size of the shadow
economy in a particular region like Daghestan than it is to offer a figure for the
Russian Federation as a whole.
The current purges, he says, may
frighten people for a time and thus improve things a little, “but how much” and
for how long is “an open question.”
No comments:
Post a Comment