Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 4 – Many commentators
are focusing on widespread speculation among Russians that the deadly explosion
in Magnitogorsk was the work of terrorists or a provocation by the siloviki to justify a further tightening
of the screws in Vladimir Putn’ss Russian Federation.
There is as yet no clear evidence
that either of these is likely, but the failure of the Russian authorities to
keep the population informed and to comment on all aspects of the situation
rather than just issuing a blanket denial of the possibility that terrorism was
involved helps to explain why such rumors are spreading.
But the disaster itself, ever more
Russians recognize, reflects three problems in their country that are in fact
far greater immediate threats than terrorism: decaying infrastructure and
especially housing, the gap between per capita government spending on Moscow
and the regions, and the Russian government’s lack of credibility.
First, as Mikhail Pozharsky and
other commentators say, the probability that the disaster at Magnitogorsk was
caused by a gas explosion means that it could be repeated almost anywhere in
Russia. Indeed, Russians may want to talk about terrorism as a cause in order
to reassure themselves that it won’t (ehorussia.com/new/node/17666).
In
fact, they say, Russian infrastructure and especially housing has deteriorated
so much in the last two decades that such explosions are not only common but
likely to become more so, the result of the government’s failure to invest some
of its enormous income from oil and gas sales in housing and other communal
services.
Sergey
Yenikoloopov, a psychologist at the Russian Academy of Medical Scientists.,
says that Russians don’t want to face up to this problem because this makes
them feel insecure. Instead, they are prepared to come up with other
explanations instead of recognizing that the very same thing could happen to
them.
Second, official government
statistics show that when the government does invest in the population, it
spends far more per capita on residents in Moscow than anywhere else. For example, in 2017, the Russian government
spend 166,000 rubles per person in the capital but only 31,200 in Magnitogorsk
(iarex.ru/news/63148.html).
Many regions are receiving far less
per person than the people of Magnitogorsk are, but people in the regions can
now see clear evidence that the preference the Kremlin gives to Muscovites as
opposed to them is not only unfair but can be deadly – and this may help power
more anti-Moscow attitudes in the country’s regions and republics.
As one Russian commentator puts it, “the
enormous stratification in Russia is not only between the one percent and the
remaining 99 percent of the population but also between Moscow and the rest of
the territories” of the Russian Federation.
And third, as Ekho Moskvy and Deutsche
Welle commentator Aleksandr Plyushev points out, Magnitogorsk shows that
the powers that be cannot count on the trust of the population “simply because”
the authorities lie and have been seen to do so often (dw.com/ru/комментарий-взрыв-в-магнитогорске-или-трудности-эпохи-тотального-вранья/a-46941591).
“Long
years of official lying have accustomed [Russians] to easily believing anything
at all except what is said in press releases,” Plyushev says. The reaction of Russians to such government
statements is incredulity and dismissiveness: “’They lie all the time,’”
Russians say. And “total lying
inevitably leads to total disbelief.”
The
situation is made even worse, he says, because the Kremlin has destroyed almost
all the institutions that could conduct honest and authoritative investigations.
Consequently, Russians are left to engage in conspiracy thinking, something
that may get the regime off the hook sometimes but that leaves the powers that
be without a reliable base far more often.
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