Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 22 – Demography, it
is often said, is destiny only over the long term; but for Russia’s regions, it
may matter more immediately because of the enormous difference between those
federal subjects population and thus their clout in Moscow and those gaining it
making greater demands on the center and sparking conflicts with their
neighbors.
The Novosti news agency commissioned a report on demographic
developments in Russia over the last three years. For the country as a whole, the report found,
the natural decline in the indigenous population had not been compensated for
by immigration, both because births declined and immigration slowed (ria.ru/20190422/1552915389.html).
But that overall picture concealed
radical differences among the regions, differences that in many cases have had
significant economic and even political consequences. The regions that lost the most population
were those in Siberia, the Far East and central Russia, all predominantly
ethnic Russian areas and all suffering relative decline in influence at the
center..
The regions that gained the most,
excluding Sevastopol in occupied Crimea which led the list, were Ingushetia
which saw its population grow 5.2 percent and Chechnya which saw its increase
by 4.5 percent. Such population growth goes a long way to explain the pressure
on land behind the explosive issue of border changes.
The other regions with large percentage
increases were either oil and gas centers or the megalopolises of St. Petersburg
and Moscow, all of whom gained more population largely because of immigration
rather than higher than average birthrates, although the two capitals were
among the leaders of natural growth because their mortality rates were lower.
Fifty-nine regions saw the outflow
of population exceed the inflow, including Daghestan in the North Caucasus
which is suffering from both economic problems and rural overpopulation, Omsk
and Orenburg in Siberia, the Komi Republic and Altay Kray.
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