Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 16 – Many thoughtful
analysts have suggested that the Kremlin’s decision to boost the pension age
would ultimately have a negative impact not just on pensioners and those near
pension age but on the entire population. Now, a new study says that this
policy will roughly double the unemployment rate of working age Russians by
2024.
Aleksey Kashepov, an analyst at the
Moscow Institute for Macroeconomic Research of the Ministry for Economic Development,
says that as a result of the boost in the pension age, unemployment in Russia
will increase from 4.9 percent now to 9.6 – 9.7 percent five years from now (nakanune.ru/news/2019/4/15/22538326/).
That will mean that nearly eight
million Russians will be without work, a situation that will not only involve
enormous suffering among them and those who depend on them but also impose
significant social welfare costs on the state and possibly threaten a rise of
anomic and anti-social behavior.
“Particular attention should be
devoted to people of pre-pension age,” Kashepov says, “since this category is more
likely to be harmed by the risk of unemployment.” But that will not be easy
because using regulations to limit unjustified dismissals of people in this age
cohort will have negative consequences as well as positive ones.
The economic analyst does not
address the political consequences of this; but an increase in unemployment and
in the threat of unemployment will almost certainly lead to greater support for
left-of-center parties and perhaps will cause some in this risk group to engage
in active protests against the powers that be who have led to their
immiseration.
Clearly, the situation for many Russians
is increasingly dire. A Gazeta article says that Russia’s
poorest now lack money even for bread (gazeta.ru/business/2019/04/16/12298747.shtml), and a Svobodnaya pressa analysis adds that the
Kremlin has left the Russian people not only with no money but with no hope either
(svpressa.ru/society/article/230353/).
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