Ingushetia Moves toward the Brink

Paul Goble

            Staunton, March 31 – Yuns-Bek Yevkurov’s decision not to give permission to Ingush who want to protest his border agreement with Chechnya, a decision he clearly feels Moscow will back him especially given that some in Moscow now blame the West for his problems, pushes that North Caucasus republic ever closer toward a potentially violent social explosion.

            Yevkurov’s increasingly hard line and its justification by some in Moscow (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/333676/ and politexpert.net/146577-politolog-nazval-besporyadki-v-ingushetii-popytkoi-nedobrozhelatelei-oslabit-rossiyu) put the republic on a dangerous course, activists warn (graniru.org/Politics/Russia/activism/m.275773.html).

            The authorities are calling in ever more participants in the March 26 protest for interrogation (zamanho.com/?p=5747), and Yevkurov on television and in a video that is circulating calls for imposing at least administrative punishments on his opponents and when possible criminal ones as well (kavkaz-uzel.eu/blogs/342/posts/37169).

            His statement is being viewed as a signal to his supporters to step up their campaign against the protesters. In addition, however, Yevkurov is taking other steps to solidify his control. Among the most prominent is a plan to change the way in which the republic parliament is elected so that he can ensure it will be in his pocket (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/333672/).

            At present, all 32 members are allotted on the basis of proportional representation of party votes. Yevkurov’s regime wants to change that so that half will be elected in single-member districts where he apparently assumes he can control the outcome more effectively and reduce the representation of those who oppose him, much as Moscow has done with the Duma.

            But the opposition is anything but cowed. It has published a list on Facebook and other social networks of the 18 police officers who were fired after refusing to attack the March 26 demonstrators. These people in the eyes of many Ingush are now national heroes (facebook.com/groups/former.russia/permalink/436302267150063/).

            Opposition groups within the teips are urging the teip of which Yevkurov is a member to rein him in before the situation deteriorates (fortanga.org/2019/03/obrashhenie-magomeda-pogorova-k-tejpu-evkurovyh/), and opposition leaders have made clear that they plan to continue their activism against both the border accord and Yevkurov’s remaining in office.

            There also appears to be a growing sense among the Ingush that this is their national moment. In a commentary for St. Petersburg’s Gorod812 portal, one of their leaders stresses that as of now, the Ingush are a people and not just the population of a particular territory (gorod-812.ru/ingushetia). That is something Yevkurov and Moscow must not forget.