Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 6 – Andrey Mukovozchik,
a pro-Lukashenka commentator for Minsk’s Sovetskaya
Belorussiya, says that all the wood from the crosses that were demolished by
government agents this week can now be used to build something useful for the
people of the republic (sb.by/articles/posledniy-khayp.html).
This tone-deaf response to outrage
by Belarusians and governments and organizations around the world, outrage that
echoes the horror many felt when the Soviets vandalized churches and used the
wood for other buildings and when the Nazis paved roads with Jewish grave
stones is intended to show that Alyaksandr Lukashenka is confident he can
weather this storm.
But he and his regime may have
miscalculated this time. Belarusians view his destruction of the crosses at Kuropaty
as a direct attack on their nation, and they too are not inclined to forget,
forgive or back down this time, however willing they have been in the past
given Lukashenka’s willingness to suppress opposition by force.
On the one hand, both the Belarusian
National Congress is calling for a public prayer service tomorrow at Minsk’s
Freedom Square about this government outrage, and the Belarusian Christian Democrats
are also calling for prayers outside the city’s main cathedral (charter97.org/ru/news/2019/4/5/329430/
and charter97.org/ru/news/2019/4/5/329460/).
And on the other, there is evidence
that at least some Belarusians are now thinking about or even are prepared to
take more radical actions against the authors of the Kuropaty outrage: Posters
have appeared in the city of Brest showing Lukashenka hosted on a pitchfork and
bearing the simple legend “It’s Time!” (charter97.org/ru/news/2019/4/6/329601/).
Lukashenka probably has enough force
on which he can rely to hold on to power. But if the challenges grow – and doing
something as outrageous and absurd as cutting down crosses put up by religious
people who only want to commemorate their ancestors is the kind of thing that
can lead to that – he could have to turn to Moscow for assistance.
That may be what the Kremlin wants:
it may even engage in provocations intended to produce that outcome. As a
result, the coming days may be the most fateful in Belarus’ post-Soviet
history.
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