Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 10 – A video clip
put out by the “Revolution of Consciousness” group, an anti-Kremlin organization,
says that Vladimir Putin ordered Ingushetia’s Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to hand over
26,000 hectares of land to Chechnya last fall, an action that has triggered the
demonstrations which have roiled his republic ever since.
The 25-minute Youtube clip has already
attracted 60,000 views and, although without corroboration of any kind, will likely
have an impact in Ingushetia, leading some anti-Yevkurov to redirect their
anger from him to Moscow but causing others to conclude he had no choice and is
not the traitor they thought (youtube.com/watch?v=81BbjTuv9fE&fbclid=IwAR12-L7HmKwBsME80MEcy7XUmIEzwQdhIEJNBz1Ew5RDyvPVioTnqSJazYo).
Meanwhile,
arrests and court hearings continued in Ingushetia, and the Russian authorities
shifted some of the Ingush prisoners to Kabardino-Balkaria in the hopes of
using the trials to divide the Ingush and the Circassians, two groups that have
been mutually supportive for some time.
But
this traditional divide-and-rule strategy doesn’t appear to be working this
time, Israeli analyst Avraam Shmulyevich says. Instead, Circassian activists
from the region have repeated their four-square support for the Ingush
opposition as chief defenders now of the common cause of all non-Russians and of Russians outside of Moscow (region.expert/circassia-ingushetia).
Andzor Kabard says
that “what is taking place in Ingushetia concerns not only the Ingush. The only
people who have come into the streets and defended constitutional rights by
peaceful means despite provocations by the Russian siloviki are the Ingush who have shown us what a small but free
nation is capable of if its people are strong in spirit.”
We Circassians number in the
millions, mostly of course in Turkey. We love to talk about this. But for some
reasons we do not go out into the streets in a comparable number.” The Ingush
are showing the way.
And Ibragim Yaganov seconds that
idea: “Today the numerically small but grat Ingush people is in the avantgarde
of the defense of the constitutional system.”
But perhaps the most important comments
about the direction things are moving in Ingushetia and the likelihood that
Yevkurov will fail to calm the situation and will be replaced in good time
comes from Tanzila Chabiyeva, a scholar at the Moscow Institute of Ethnology
and Anthropology (caucasustimes.com/ru/tanzila-chabieva-o-tom-kakoj-budet-ingushetija-posle-repressij).
She tells Prague’s
Caucasus Times that Ingushetia “will
never be what it was before” the protests began last fall. The Ingush people do not accept the decision
of the Russian Constitutional court, and they will “continue to struggle for
their rights.” Moreover, it appears that
“this struggle will be quite prolonged.”
The repressive actions of the republic
government are only making the situation worse, she says. They are in no way
leading to a resolution.
According to Chabiyeva, “the authorities
and civil society have distanced themselves one another to a dangerous point.
This is obvious. The rating of the republic authorities is so loyal and the authority
of the leadership has fallen so much that today we are already seeing a split in
the closest entourage of Yevkurov.
Those closest to him “are leaving
him.” That means, the ethnographer continues, that “the entire situation will
be resolved in a short time but it will be resolved in an extremely radical
way.”
Yevkurov is very much involved in the
repressions, Chabiyeva says. He is a military man and expects discipline. He
may need Moscow’s help but he is very much behind the line his republic government
is pursuing. But what it is doing is not suppressing dissent but exacerbating the
situation.
Moscow is supporting Yevkurov in the
hopes that he can be successful, in order to avoid looking like it is backing down
when faced with public pressure and so that the protests in that republic will
not infect other republics in the region. Getting rid of Yevkurov right now would
be a manifestation of weakness.
According to Chabiyeva, Moscow will
get rid of Yevkurov relatively soon, after there is a pause in the protests;
but it will replace him with another military type with close ties to the Presidential
administration rather than the businessman or the economist many in Ingushetia
would prefer to see in his place.
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