Paul Goble
Staunton,
June 15 – The recent controversy over a new film about the Chernobyl nuclear
disaster in 1986 has prompted many who were alive at that time to recall what
is meant for them. Vladimir Pastukhov, a London-based analyst of Russian
affairs, says that for him and many others, it was a turning point to led to
the end of the USSR.
Mikhail
Gorbachev has said that Chernobyl contributed to the demise of the Soviet Union
by its impact on the economy, Pastukhov says; but that is not the case. Instead,
it did so by destroying the trust between the population and the regime and
dividing them permanently between “us” and “them” (republic.ru/posts/93943).
“With Chernobyl,” the historian
says, “began my alienation from everything that was in any way connected with the
state and with those who worked for it. From that moment to the last day of the
existence of this system as only ‘I’ and ‘they’ – and the two things were always
separate and in opposition to each other.
Consequently, when the regime began
to disintegrate, Pastukhov continues, he looked on without any desire to get
involved in saving it. Trust, he points out,
is something that can dissipate overnight and that is what happened because of
Chernobyl, a development that many underrate.
“Regimes die in the last analysis
not from wars, catastrophes or even more from economc difficulties. All of
those things in fact may help them unite and survive if there is trust.
Instead, regimes die from actions that cause a large part of their populations
to be politically alienated” – and that is something one must always remember
and look for.
The American film about Chernobyl
has pluses and minuses, Pastukhov says. “But from my point of view, the main
thing in it is that it captures the atmosphere of lives which surrounded us
then.”
In an appearance via Skype on Ekho
Mosvky’s “2019” program, the London-based analyst suggests that what is going
in Russia today in many ways represents a slow-moving Chernobyl in which any
remaining trust between the population and the regime is being destroyed (echo.msk.ru/programs/year2019/2444781-echo/).
As
a result, when the crisis comes as it must, the regime will not be able to
count on the people, not because of economic problems or political failures but
because like its Soviet predecessors, it has lost the trust of the people. They
are thus highly unlikely to come to its defense.
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