Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 22 – Six weeks
ago, Issa Kostoyev, an Ingush lawyer who also serves as an advisor to the Ingush
authorities, said that Magas would seek reduced sentences only for those who
confess and cooperate (youtube.com/watch?v=70nB4En22RM).
Now the first sentences handed down show that promise/threat is real.
Timur Akiyev, a journalist for the Ekho
Kavkaza portal, says the three Ingush protesters who have confessed have
been given sentences that, with time served in detention counted, allow them to
be home by the New Year. It seems likely, he says, that the 30 who continue to
maintain their innocence will be given more serious jail time (ekhokavkaza.com/a/30338366.html).
The strategy of the authorities in
this regard is transparent. On the one hand, they hope to divide the opposition
between those who confess and those who don’t. And on the other, they are
undoubtedly confident that the powers that be will benefit: those released will
be discredited; those held won’t be in a position to organize new protests
anytime soon.
But such an approach may not always work.
One prisoner, Amir Oskanov, who initially said he would plead guilty in the hopes
of a lighter sentence, now has refused, his lawyers say, after seeing exactly
what the state was charging him with (fortanga.org/2019/12/amir-oskanov-otkazalsya-ot-osobogo-poryadka-rassmotreniya-dela/).
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