In July 1 Vote, Putin Lost Much of His Base -- the Elderly, the Military, and the Oil and Gas Workers

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – Vladimir Putin’s decision to raise the pension age, his failure to provide more support for the population during the pandemic, and his inaction during the worst days of the coronavirus plague cost him support in the July 1 vote among three groups – the elderly, the military, and oil and gas workers – that have been his base, Aleksandr Kynyev says.

            Until the last few years, Putin could count on the influence of television on these groups even as younger and more urban voters turned to the Internet to view the world as he wanted them to see it and support his policies. Indeed, his policies reflected the preferences they had or he created, the Moscow analyst says (newtimes.ru/articles/detail/195987?fcc).

            And when his support among these three groups eroded, he responded until the recent vote by seeking to drive down participation or at least not working to expand it. But once he committed himself to boosting participation, the only way to get the positive result he wanted was massive falsification, Kynyev continues.

            With his pension reform, Putin lost the support of many of the elderly. With his failure to provide more assistance to the pandemic, he lost still more as well as among those in the hard-hit petroleum industry. And with his retreat to the bunker and inactivity, he ceased to project the image of a strong leader and thus lost support in the military.

            This latest vote also showed, the analyst says, that administrative measures to get out the vote didn’t work in Putin’s favor the way they had because of these shifts in opinion. He repeats the Znak analysis of no votes in closed cities (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/07/russias-closed-cities-less-supportive.html).

                And Kynyev extends the conclusions of that analysis by examining voting in and around Russian military bases, including one in Syria where more than 50 percent of the military personnel taking part voted against the Putin amendments (udf.by/news/world/215145-putin-terjaet-podderzhku-armii.html).

            Putin also lost ground among workers in the oil and gas industry because of the collapse of that sector. There, the political analyst suggests, Putin’s staying in the bunker may have cost him much of the support he had because it made him look weak in the eyes of those who counted on having a “strong” leader.

            As a result of this erosion in support among his base, Putin has little choice but to return to the policy of suppressing turnout and falsifying the results, tactics sufficiently visible for all to see that they are likely to cost him even more support and force him to rely not only on ballot box stuffing but unadorned force to get his way.