Likelihood Putin will Try to Seize Territory in Baltic Countries ‘Growing with Each Passing Day,’ Kasparov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 15 – “Putin is clearly at an impasse in Ukraine,” Gary Gasparov says; and understanding that “he can be forgiven for anything except losing a war, the Kremlin leader has “the resources to keep it going at least for now.: But he has only “one possible form of success: inspiring the people with the narrative that we defeated NATO.”

            Such a narrative, the émigré Russian political leader who is now a member of the PACE platform says, means that “the probability of a provocation or an attempt to seize certain perhaps even small areas of NATO territory in the Baltic countries is growing with each passing day” (pointmedia.io/story/6a071c9975d0dd3346a25cb19).

            The Kremlin leader “might seize five square kilometers of territory near Narva in Estonia or Daugavpils in Latvia … because they are major Russian-speaking urban centers near the border” with the Russian Federation given that it is “unlikely that Russia possesss the resources to launch massive armies against the Baltic states.”

            But seizing even small bridgeheads, Kasparov argues, “could certainly create pockets of tension and demonstrate that NATO is no longer functional” and even more allow Putin to spin out a narrative that he and Russia were winners regardless of what may happen in the case of Ukraine.

            According to Kasparov, “this scenario is highly probable, particularly given that Trump is almost certain to block virtually all collective NATO decisions. Yet Trump’s time in office is not infinite either—it is drawing to a close. If the Democrats gain control of Congress [in the autumn elections], that alone would be sufficient to summon Trump’s officials to testify under oath.”

            “Consequently, the window of opportunity for Putin to inflict a defeat upon ‘the paper tiger’ that is NATO is rapidly narrowing. And the Europeans understand this. That is why we now hear Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians openly stating that the Western contingents currently stationed on their soil will respond directly to actions taken by the local authorities.”

Specifically, he says, “the Estonians are clearly signaling that the British brigade will fight alongside Estonian forces without waiting for a directive from Brussels. I presume that other agreements are also in place   … But the fact remains: a new bloc is taking shape—a defensive alliance designed to respond to the specific challenges of the present day.”