Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 21 – By responding as
they have to Moscow protests against the tearing down of the khrushchoby apartment blocks, Moscow
city officials and federal politicians are teaching people there and more
generally a lesson that poses a serious challenge to the authorities: Russians
are learning they can “defend their rights in the streets.”
After tracing the way the
authorities have backed down after each round of protests, Znak’s Yekaterina
Vinokurova draws that conclusion and then interviews two commentators about
what is likely to come next for the people and the powers (znak.com/2017-05-19/o_horoshem_plohom_i_neopredelennom_v_itogah_protesta_na_prospekte_saharova).
Moscow political scientist Abbas
Gallyamov says that both sides are coming out ahead. “Muscovites have gotten the
authorities to listen to them and the draft law has been changed in
correspondence with their demands. The mayor’s office has gotten what it cared
most about: the program will be carried out,” albeit in a less radical form.
He suggests that protests are
unlikely to grow because “people will be satisfied by the fact that the
authorities have listened to them.” But
the powers have taught the people a lesson that threatens the powers
themselves: going into the streets to defend
their interests works and the authorities may back down.
That means, Gallyamov says, that the
next time a conflict arises, “people will joint protests more willingly than
they did before the meetings against the
renovation project.”
Aleksey Makarkin, the vice president
of the Moscow Center for Political Technologies, says that the protests are
likely to ebb this summer but that the experience of Muscovites with them will
make them less likely to vote for the party of power in the Moscow municipal
electios this fall.
And that carries with it a problem
for Sobyanin’s team which had counted on winning with a low level of
participation. Now, there are enough people opposed to him that more will come
up to vote for the KPRF or Yabloko or even run themselves. And that could mean that the election outcome
is less certain.
Moreover, as Vinokurova notes, at
least one more major demonstration against the renovation program is scheduled
to take place next Sunday. Its organizers are PARNAS and Yabloko.
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