Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Propaganda Can’t Solve Three New Challenges for Putin, Krasheninnikov Says


Paul Goble

            Staunton, March 5 – For much of his career, Vladimir Putin has been remarkably successful in using propaganda to deal with the problems he has faced; but in the first two months of 2020, Fyodor Krasheninnikov says, he faces three new challenges which highlight the growing inadequacy of his regime because propaganda alone can’t solve them.

            The Russian commentator says that Putin’s approach was anticipated by Viktor Pelevin’s 1999 novel, Generation P, which suggested that Russia would be ruled by propaganda so that those in power could remain there without ever having to address real problems because they could always redefine them (newtimes.ru/articles/detail/191541?fcc).

            Putin succeeded in large measure by such tactics. His model victory in this regard came in 2014 when he convinced Russians that the crisis in Ukraine affected them directly and that their difficulties could be solved by invading. That worked for a time, distracting people from the costs of what Putin was doing.

            But only for a time because some of what he did continues to cast a shadow on Russia, most prominently the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner.  Had he avoided doing that Putin might have continued to reap the propaganda benefits of 2014 but the world hasn’t forgotten this crime and won’t.

            Now in 2020, Putin and his system face three interrelated problems even as they seek to distract the population with the rewriting of the constitution and what seem likely to be early elections for the Duma.  The Kremlin leader has once again destabilized the situation in order to strengthen his own power, but real events have intervened against him.

            Three in particular have emerged in the last two months: First, the coronavirus epidemic which once it reaches Russia will hurt in the first instance Putin’s political base. Second, economic problems arising from that epidemic including a collapse in oil prices and the ruble, leaving the regime with less money and the population facing rising prices.

            And third, the situation in Syria where developments are raising ever more questions even as there are ever fewer answers. Putin has bet on Asad but it is uncertain whether that is a good bet, and what he assumed would be a demonstration of Russia’s revival as a great power may in fact show something entirely different – Moscow’s inability to act successfully abroad.

            Each of these problems requires real actions, not the propaganda methods Putin typically has used. Moreover, Krasheninnikov argues, their consequences are interrelated. If the epidemic spread, few will be interested in coming to the Moscow celebrations of the 75th anniversary of the Great Victory; and the weakening of China may lead Beijing to reorder its alliances.

            It is now obvious that Putin missed the moment when he could have rewritten the constitution with ease. That was in the spring of 2015 when he was at the height of his power and popularity. But like many leaders at that point, he assumed that he would always be there and could thus make changes whenever he felt like it.

            Now, “the first two months of 2020 demonstrate the growing inadequacy of the authorities: objectively existing problems are being ignored and more than that they are getting worse as a result of the inappropriate and poorly thought out initiatives regarding the rewriting of the constitution and early elections.”

            According to Krasheninnnikov, “Putin is raising the stakes both in Russia and in foreign policy, ignoring the possibility that circumstances or their coming together may be stronger than he and his plans are. He hopes for a rapid end of the epidemic, a return of economic growth, and a resolution in Syria, but he isn’t capable of acting to ensure any of those.

            Consequently, the commentator concludes, “2020 promises to be filled with events and news, but there are no reasons to hope that these will be good ones. But one thing is beyond doubt already: the main events of this year aren’t going to be the amendments to the constitution or the Victory of 1945.”
           

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