Pandemic Affecting Security in Eastern Europe Ever More Broadly, Minsk Dialogue Group Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 12 – Last week, the Minsk Dialogue group held an online discussion with experts from Germany’s Adenauer Foundation, Lithuania’s Center for Research on Eastern Europe, Belarus’ Center for Eurasian and European Research, and the UK’s Compass group to discuss “pandemic destruction: the influence of the coronavirus on security in Eastern Europe.”

            Alisiya Ivanova of the Minsk Group summarizes their conclusions as follows (minskdialogue.by/research/memorable-notes/posledstviia-covid-19-dlia-bezopasnosti-v-vostochnoi-evrope-obzor-diskussii):

            The virus has two different sets of consequences, the experts say. On the one hand, it affects the health and wellbeing of those in the military and thus affects their ability to do their jobs. And on t he other, it affects the entire society and thus its ability to maintain its forces and its integrity in the world today.

            “The chief geopolitical effect of COVID-19 is the acceleration of time: the process of the transformation of the system of international relations which began several years ago now will occur much more quickly,” she reports the experts as saying.

            At the same time, and in contrast to the impact of major wars, the end of the pandemic will not lead to any “fundamental structural changes” in the international architecture but only deepen the already existing “problems and conflicts” in the first instance between the United States and China.

            Eastern Europe will not be in “the epicenter” of their competition, but they will be affected by the growing disputes between the EU and the Russian Federation which will take place in the shadow of the larger US-China conflict.

            As is happening elsewhere, nation states in Eastern Europe will assume an ever-larger role in international relations compared to multi-lateral institutions despite all the benefits of the latter for smaller powers. “We can thus expect to see a trend toward ‘the Westphalization” of international relations.”

            As states strengthen, so too will the role of police and the military, with the latter being able to act in ways that they were constrained from doing in the past.  At the same time, however, there is likely to be a growing sense of social solidarity and self-organization among the broader societies.

            In this situation, the experts say, everyone must be on the lookout for the rise of nationalism and populism which have gained during the pandemic. And everyone must try to devote more resources to the WHO or its replacement so that there won’t be as weak a response to future pandemics with all the political consequences that would arise otherwise.

            As larger international organizations weaken, the East European must devote more attention to increasing the strength of regional ones. There must be a recognition that past pandemics have often sparked regional military conflicts, including in the countries of the East European region.

            The experts participating in this online discussion suggest that the pandemic will likely undermine existing systems of control over armaments and reduce the effectiveness of existing confidence-building measures, all of which will have to be rebuilt if the region is to avoid disaster.