Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 7 – The logic of the
sanctions regime the West imposed on Moscow after Putin seized Ukraine’s Crimea
was not only to underscore its opposition to this blatant violation of
international law but also to raise the price on Moscow of occupying Ukrainian
territory and eventually leading the Russian government to back down and return
the peninsula.
In the years since the Russian
Anschluss, these sanctions have imposed enormous costs on Moscow but not
sufficient for Moscow to change course.
Now, the coronavirus pandemic with its economic impact has raised those
prices still further, prompting Moscow to launch yet another round of calls for
ending sanctions so that all can focus on the pandemic.
It is unlikely Moscow will return
Crimea to Ukraine as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power, Andreas Umland, a
specialist at the Kyiv Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, says; but it is
clear that the pandemic has added to the pressure on Russia (ru.krymr.com/a/andreas-umland-o-kryme-sankciyah-protiv-rossii-i-zayavlenii-shredera/30593995.html).
The pandemic has distracted the
attention of many in the world “from the issue of annexed Crimea and the
aggression of Russia in Ukraine,” Umland continues; but sanctions continue to
have an impact on Russia and they are having a greater impact now than earlier
because of the borrowing restrictions they place on Moscow to finance economic
recovery.
According to Umland, in the current
environment, “Russia would like” to life its own counter-sanctions on
foodstuffs, “but it cannot do this without the lifting of at least a part of
Western sanctions. The logic of this regime is such that it cannot show
weakness.” But not showing weakness and being in a weak position are not the same
thing.\
The Kyiv scholar says that “under
conditions of the economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, Russia will
find it ever more difficult to finance annexed Crimea,” especially given the
financial demands that the crisis and pandemic are placing on it with regard to
the Russian Federation as such.
The Kremlin insists that it has
plenty of money even though it hasn’t spent it as yet, but one must keep in
mind that “Crimea remains for Russia a region which requires enormous
subsidies; and under conditions when financing is being cut, this Crimean
adventure will be ever more subject to questioning.
“I have big doubts,” Umland says, that
Russia in the future will be able to allow itself to hold Crimea.”
After Putin leaves office, “Russia
could not only lose control over annexed Crimea but lose part of its own
territories, in particular, certain regions of the North Caucasus.” Russia is
unlikely to disintegrate completely, and it is not clear that that would be
something positive for Ukraine. But recovering Crimea and ending Russian
aggression in the Donbass matters.
In the meantime, and especially
while Putin is still in office, Umland says he cannot exclude the possibility
that there will be an escalation in Russian aggression in Ukraine. Moscow may seek to gain control of the canal
which has supplied water to Crimea or move further into southern portions of
Ukraine.
Unfortunately, Umland says, the West’s
reaction to Russia’s escalation of tensions in the Azov Sea “sent a signal to
Russia” that Moscow may have a freer hand in the southern portions of Ukraine
and in the eastern ones.
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