Russia Rapidly Heading toward ‘Breakup 2.0,’ Nesmiyan Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, August 2 – Anatoly Nesmiyan who blogs under the screen name El Murid says that Russia is rapidly heading toward “Breakup 2.0” and that many of the events that preceded the first edition of that in 199, both those that promoted that outcome and those that opposed it, could very well be repeated in the next few months.

            That is because, he argues, “the cause of both ‘the first’ and ‘the second’ wave is one and the same thing, the complete lack of correspondence between the administrative arrangements of the system and the object it is administering.” As a result, the ruling nomenklatura couldn’t and can’t take decisions to save the situation (el-murid.livejournal.com/4514558.html).

            But there are some important differences as well, Nesmiyan says. “The Soviet Union fell apart much more rapidly than did the ruling party-soviet nomenklatura, and present-day Russia is degrading significantly more slowly than the Putin camarilla has been and continues to.” But the result will be the same as in 1991.

            According to the blogger, there are only two ways out: either those in power must give place to another elite capable of developing the country or they must “bring the object being administered” – Russia – into line with the capabilities of the existing elite, accelerating the country’s degradation until it falls to a level at which its state corresponds to that of the rulers.

            In the unlikely event that Putin and his entourage ceded power to others, Russia would have to organize an electoral system excluding criminals from the old – that is, current – regime and ensuring that the country would change rulers at all levels frequently so that they could finally catch up with society.

            But Putin isn’t going to give up power voluntarily even if he is promised immunity; and as a result, Nesmiyan says, the country is headed toward “Breakup 2.0.” As was the case 30 years ago, the regional elites are going to be the key players. They’ve had a taste of running things during the pandemic and as things get worse they will want more.

            They aren’t behind the Khabarovsk events but they undoubtedly welcome them because they are rapidly coming to despite Putin and his regime as much as the Russian people do.  They are watching and waiting for their time, one where they can use such protests, to create their own independent power bases – just as in 1991.