Russia Remains Dominant in Post-Soviet Space but Can’t Afford Burdens of Direct Rule Over That Space, Valdai Club Report Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 20 – The Valdai Club has released a study by Timofey Bordachev which argues that while Russia remains the dominant power in the post-Soviet space and most of its neighbors lack the ability to develop without outside help, Moscow can’t afford to take on the burdens of extending direct rule over them.

            Instead, the study, “A Space without Borders: Russia and Its Neighbors,” argues Moscow must pursue policies that are based on the protection of Russia’s national security. In some places that may mean absorption as in Belarus, in others like Ukraine a change in borders, and in still others promoting pro-Russian governments (kommersant.ru/doc/5140136).

              Bordachev says that “Russia was and will remain the dominant power of the so-called post-Soviet space because it has the largest population, one of the best armies in the world, and an enormous arsenal of nuclear weapons comparable only with the American.” Its neighbors aren’t in a position to solve the issues of their own development and security on their own.

            One solution, he continues, “would be the return to some form of direct administration from Moscow of part of the former union republics,” but “this would require the exertion of force which in the long-term perspective would be fatal for the Russian economy and statehood.”

            Therefore, Moscow and its neighbors will have to work out “some form of interrelationship which will not require dictating them the rules of their domestic life at defining their foreign policy but ensure the guaranteeing of the security of Russia and a relatively stable world on its borders.”

            According to the analyst, “the ideal goal of Russian policy would be the establishment along its perimeter of a chain of states which will take independent foreign policy decisions that take account of geopolitical circumstances,” the most important of which of course is the paramount power of Russia in this region.

            Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are countries that have moved in this direction, he says. Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Belarus are examples of those which have not and must be pressured to do so. Outside powers must avoid taking steps that encourage these countries to think they can pursue an anti-Russian policy.