Armenia's Pursuit of Equal Treatment for All Members of Russian-Led Groupings Threatens Moscow More than Its Own Exit Would

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 16 – Any individual, group or country which is part of a larger structure created by others which have done so to give only themselves advantages has two options: exit or changing the nature of those structures so that all taking part are treated equally.

            Those seeking exit always attract more attention; but those seeking to transform such structures may achieve more for themselves and for other members and thus represent an even greater threat to the pretensions of the original creators than the departure of one or another.

            This situation and that possibility is highlighted by what Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan has demanded as a condition for Yerevan remaining in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and the impact of his demand on other members of that organization (altyn-orda.kz/eaes-ne-dolzhen-byt-soyuzom-s-privilegiyami-dlya-moskvy-armeniya-potrebovala-ravnyh-pravil/).

            As Kazakhstan’s Altyn-Orda portal observes, “Armenia is ever more sharply raising the question of what the Eurasian Economic Union should be: a combination of equal states or a structure where Russian in fact has special possibilities.” He wants Armenia to be an equal, implying that if that isn’t possible, then Yerevan may leave the grouping altogether.

            It would be one thing if Armenia left. That would deprive the union of one member and might lead others to think about doing so. But it would not, as Altyn-Orda suggests, change the nature of the Eurasian Union. It might be smaller but it would still be as now dominated by Moscow.

            By demanding equal treatment for his country and for other members, however, Pashinyan is threatening Russia will the loss of something more than Armenian membership: he is calling for a new deal among the members, one that will give all the non-Russian members greater rights and Russia fewer.

            And if other members move to make similar demands and thus act as Armenia is, that could weaken Russia far more than Armenia’s departure would, given that unless Moscow is prepared to accept new rules of the game which give the others more rights and itself less, it would be more likely to lose influence across the board in the post-Soviet region.