Paul Goble
Staunton, Aug.23 – Over the past several months, the attitude of Russian elites toward Putin has become more negative, Vladimir Pastukhov says; but this isn’t yet a threat to the Kremlin leader because his use of repression has prevented them from acting on this shift and because the Russian people are even more hostile to these elites than they are to Putin himself.
The London-based Russian analyst, one of the closest and most thoughtful observers of the Moscow scene, says that he is convinced that the shift in elite attitudes is real and not some notion promoted by Ukraine or others opposed to Putin (t.me/v_pastukhov/1988 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/perelom-nastroenij-v-elite-ne-mif).
Moreover, Pastukhov continues, he views this frone “not so much as anti-war, however much many would like to see it, but rather as anti-Putin, a shift in attitudes that reflects the judgment of elites that Putin has failed to achieve his promised goals” and his allowing the war to come home to Russia and threaten their interests.
This shift in elite attitudes thus “does not pose any danger to Putin at the moment, first of all because he has control of a repressive regime that can eliminate anyone who raises his head; second … because the Russian people dislike them even more than they dislike Putin; and third, because the frond does not have a leader.”
But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t a problem. “The very fact of its existence is something Putin cannot ignore,” the London-based analyst says; and his reaction can turn this shift in attitudes into something more serious for the future of his rule. “The best way out would be to do nothing,” but that isn’t something Putin is capable of.
Consequently, it will be how Putin reacts rather than how the elite feels that will define what will happen in the coming weeks and months, Pastukhov concludes.
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