Paul Goble
Staunton, Aug. 17 – Given the losses Russia has already suffered in Ukraine and the likelihood that it will not achieve Putin’s war goals, “the main geopolitical outcome” of the war there may prove to be that “the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Eastern Europe wil have even more space for independent foreign policies,” the Altyn-Orda portal says.
That is because in their capitals, the independent outlet says, “the Russian army will cease to be perceived as an almost insurmountable military force, and the Kremlin’s ability to impose its decisions on its neighbors will be significantly reduced” (altyn-orda.kz/esli-rossiya-proigraet-vojnu-chto-budet-s-nej-posle-porazheniya-v-ukraine/).
Thus, Altyn-Orda continues, a military action which Putin began almost five years ago to restore Russian dominance of the former Soviet space is likely to prove to have exactly the opposite effect; and that will be true regardless of whether Russia in face “loses” the war as some are now predicting.
The portal reaches that conclusion after reviewing what are the three main conclusions Western analysts have drawn: that losses in Ukraine may lead Moscow to become more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad, that Russia itself will suffer some territorial losses of its own, or that Moscow will radically change course after Putin leaves the scene.
In the view of Altyn-Orda, the first may happen but Moscow’s resources at least with regard to foreign actions have been reduced, Russia may lose some territories but will remain a large and important country, and efforts by Moscow to reintegrate in the international community may occur but may or may not prove sustainable.
Seen from this perspective, Putin’s misadventures in Ukraine may best be seen as another step in the continuing collapse of the Russian empire, something that is all too often in the West viewed mistakenly viewed as something that happens quickly and could be stopped or reversed easily.
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