A Minimum of 2500 Russian Soldiers from East of the Urals have Died in Putin’s War So Far, MediaZone and the BBC Report

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 3 – Between February 24 and December 26, analysts from MediaZone and the Russian Service of the BBC have confirmed that 10,711 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine. Of these, a minimum of 2500 have come from predominantly ethnic Russian oblasts and krays and non-Russian republics east of the Urals – nearly one in four of the total.

            Much has been made of the high death rates among soldiers from non-Russian republics, but these figures show that there is an important regional dimension to what is going on and that Moscow relies heavily on impoverished areas distant from the major metropolises in the center of the country (sibreal.org/a/casualties-january/32205248.html).

            Non-Russians have already reacted to the fact that their fathers, sons, and husbands are more likely to die in Putin’s war than are Russians and have in some cases protested. If Russians in the regions draw similar conclusions and take similar actions, that could lead to a dramatic increase in protests against the war.

            The full MediaZone report, available at zona.media/casualties, constitutes a treasure trove of data, including confirmed death figures in all the federal subjects of the Russian Federation, statistics on deaths among various age cohorts, and deaths by week over the course of the war so far, including more than 400 in the last two weeks before December 26.

Movie Attendance in Russia Collapses as US Film Makers Impose Sanctions

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 3 – Russians spent 42 percent less for tickets to movie theaters than they did the year before, according to the Film Foundation, failing to make up for downturns during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and highlighting the impact of the decision of Western studios not to send their wares to the Russian market (ng.ru/news/756932.html).

            On March 1, Disney, Sony, Warner Brothers, Universal, and Paramount announced that as part of the sanctions regime, they would no be sending any of their new movies to Russia, thus depriving the Russian audience of many of the films that would otherwise have brought them into theaters.

By summertime, the situation in Russian theaters had become “catastrophic,” Laris Malyukova of Novaya gazeta says, with Russians not able to view the summer blockbusters they had expected and staying home in droves (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/01/02/dramaticheskie-oshibki).

Russian theater operators tried to compensate by bringing in more films from India and other Asian producers, but that has proved insufficient to bring Russians back to the theaters. Russian filmmakers did benefit: they attracted just over half of those attending, but it was just over half of total attendance that has sunk by almost half.

Putin Regime has Lost Sense of Shame that had Sometimes Constrained It, Kolesnikov Says

 Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 3 – Since Putin launched his expanded war against Ukraine last February, his regime has lost the sense of shame that had caused them to try to cover up what they are doing with fine words; and the removal of this last constraint means that the future in Russia under the current ruler is bleak indeed, the New Times’ Andrey Kolesnikov says.

            This loss of a sense of shame, he continues, has gone “hand in hand with the breaking of ties with the outside world, including those which kept the state within a civilized framework. For example, it withdrew from the Group of States against Corruption, effectively admitting that corruption is at the base of the Putin regime” (newtimes.ru/articles/detail/233469).

            Now that Putin and his minions no longer feel compelled either to lie about what they have done or to use euphemisms to describe their actions, the odds are good that they will feel increasingly free to violate the norms that until recently had filled them with a sense of shame regarding their criminal actions.

            The Kremlin leader, of course, has been moving in this direction over the entire course of his more than two decades in power, Kolesnikov concedes; but over the course of the last year, he has become more open and that means more pitiless” in his actions, a trend that suggests the worst is yet to come for Russians, Ukrainians and everyone with whom Putin deals.

Even Defeat in Ukraine won’t by Itself Lead to Russia’s Disintegration, Pryanikov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 3 – Many commentators are suggesting that if Russia loses its war in Ukraine, the country will disintegrate, Pavel Pryanikov says. But history shows that even a loss in a war by itself won’t lead to that outcome. It will occur only if there are forces within Russia pointing in that direction, and as of now, they aren’t sufficient to cause that outcome.

            According to the Russian commentator who founded the Interpreter portal, Russia won’t fall part even if it signs “a partial capitulation” to Ukraine, just as it did not disintegrate after it signed such a treaty with Japan. Now, as then, such a move would shake the country but not cause it by itself to fall apart (business-gazeta.ru/article/578730).

            The Putin regime understands this; and one must give it its due, it has “taken the mistakes of its predecessors into account.” Had Gorbachev been more willing to use massive amounts of force, he would have saved the USSR at least for a time, much as Beijing saved the Peoples Republic of China by crushing the Tiananmen protests, Pryanikov says.

            Putin, of course, is more than ready to use massive force; but he also has taken steps so that he is not threatened by four other factors that led to the disintegration of the USSR. First, he has crushed regional elites. Second, he has worked hard to limit any manifestation of nationalism. Third, he has brought the intelligentsia to heel, forcing it to submit or emigate.

            And fourth, he has worked hard to ensure that his regime does not face the development that triggered many of the protests at the end of Soviet times. Unlike then, there is now no deficit of consumer goods. If that changed significantly as a result of sanctions and economic difficulties, the situation would. But Putin understands threat and will block such a development.

            As a result, Putin and those around him are certain that “in Russia today, everything is fine.” And they have particular reason for confidence in that Putin has surrounded himself with competent cadres. His current prime minister is outstanding, “certainly the best since 2000.” And the civilians he has put in charge are far more confident than those in uniform.

            No one should underestimate Putin or say that “he doesn’t understand anything: because he is sitting in his bunker, the commentator continues. Regarding the administration of his regime, “he understands everything and sees that it is precisely civilian forces which are the chief prop of his regime during the special military operation.”

            And Putin has one additional advantage. The Americans don’t want to see Russia come apart. They didn’t want the USSR to fall apart either, but now their commitment to the territorial integrity of Russia is even greater. A Russia without a central power and divided into pieces could lead to “loose nukes” and be easy pickings for China. 

            All this doesn’t mean that Moscow doesn’t face problems: it does and they are serious. But it is an enormous leap to go from them to apocalyptic conclusions about the disintegration of the Russian Federation, Pryanikov says. Something besides the war in Ukraine will have to occur for that to happen. 

Moscow Must Address Soviet Crimes If It Hopes to Counter Charges that Russians were Responsible for All of Them, Kurilla Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 3 – Many in the human rights community are so focused on the crimes being committed by the current Russian government against its own people and against Russia’s neighbors that they have reduced the attention they gave in the past to the crimes of the Soviet system. But that is a very serious mistake, Ivan Kurilla says.

            Not only does it deprive the descendants of the victims the right to acknowledgement and justice and open the way for the Kremlin to whitewash Soviet times in the pursuit of its notions about “a single stream” of Russian history, but it has allowed people in Ukraine and elsewhere to blame Russia for what were Soviet crimes (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=63B3C72703934).

            By not addressing those crimes and assuming the mantel of the legal heir of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin has unwittingly landed itself in a dead end politically with regard to its own goals. It is allowing nationalists throughout the region to suggest that “it was Russia which pursued a policy of terror and genocide against Ukrainians, Poles and the rest.”

            By acting as it has and with the unintended complicity of some in the human rights community, Moscow finds it impossible to challenge that notion and to insist that Russians were victims too of the various forms of genocide and mass murder the Soviet system inflicted on all under its control.

            When a future democratic Russia is finally established, Kurilla says, focusing on Soviet crimes is not only a moral imperative but an essential national security requirement because until Russia addresses the past fully and openly, it can’t expect others to do the same. Its current approach thus supports who say that Russians were to blame for everything.

As with the End of the USSR, Russia’s Disintegration Not without Risks But Its Survival as a Single Country Entails Greater Ones, Ginzburg Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 3 – There clearly are obvious risks involved if Russia disintegrates, Vitaly Ginzburg says; but they must be considered in isolation. Rather, they must balanced against the equally obvious risks that will arise if Russia doesn’t fall into pieces Those risks are much greater.

            Over the last 30 years, many around the world have had the chance to see what the disintegration of the Soviet Union has led to, the Kasparov commentator suggests, costs that have been sufficiently high that now many fear that the demise of a unified Russian Federation must be opposed at all costs (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=63B33B2D9A187).

            But such an approach to risk assessment is wrong, Ginzburg continues. Few have taken the time to consider the risks the world would have faced if the Soviet Union had not fallen apart; and even fewer are now asking what risks the international community and the peoples of Eurasia will face if the Russian Federation doesn’t.

            The costs to the world of the Russian Federation if that country manages to hold together are obvious, he says, if one considers the beneficiaries of its disintegration: an end to a global military threat, an end to the major source of corruption around the world, an end to the chief money launderer, and an end to the chief organization of opposition to democracy.

            The costs to Russians if the Russian Federation holds to together are equally obvious and something to be avoided if possible: continued involvement in aggressive wars, international isolation, and a regime committed to repressing its own people rather than listening to them and meeting their needs.

            That is not to say that there aren’t risks in Russia’s disintegration, Ginzburg says; but those are much discussed while the risks of the Russian Federation remaining in one piece typically are not. They need to be rather than simply assuming that disintegration must be avoided at all costs – and that somehow Russia can be transformed within its current borders.

Those Seeking ‘Russia’s Special Path’ on Yandex.Maps Told ‘that Road Not Yet Built,’ Muscovites Report

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 3 – Now that Yandex has a maps function, Russians are querying the online service as where “Russia’s special path” can be found. Unfortunately, the best Yandex can offer in reply, Muscovites joke with all too obvious bitterness, is that that road “has not yet been constructed.”

            This is just one of the anecdotes now circulating in Moscow that have been assembled by Moscow journalist Tatyana Pushkaryova (publizist.ru/blogs/107374/44816/-). Among the best of the rest in her latest compilation are the following:

·       Russian television mistakenly showed its viewers in the Far East Putin’s New Years greeting from 2036.

·       Ilon Mask is a pike. He lost 200 billion in 2022; but Russia lost a trillion because of Putin’s war in Ukraine, the sanctions the West imposed, and the economic crisis that has followed.

·       Russia is like the old woman in Pushkin’s tale about the fisherman and the fish who kept asking for more only in the end to lose everything.

·       Putin’s New Years message was important: it told Russians what they’d have to die for in 2023.

·       Aleksandr Prokhanov says Stalin is coming back in Putin and the current Kremlin leader may even grow a moustache. But of course, Hitler also had a moustache.

·       Everything in the world can be replaced, except for Putin.

·       Polls in Russia are simply the way the secret desires of those in power are legitimized.