Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 7 – In yet
another indication that Vladimir Putin plans to pocket what he has already
seized and then move on to take more, Moscow commentators are beginning to talk
about the federalization of Ukraine not as a means of dealing with the Donbas
but instead after Novorossiya is taken away from it.
On the Svobodnaya pressa portal
yesterday, Dmitry Rodionov surveys the support for that highly aggressive posture
in an article entitled “The Federalization of Ukraine. A Reset” --even claiming
to see evidence that there is growing support for such a policy within Ukraine
itself (svpressa.ru/politic/article/97452/).
“In Kyiv,” the portal journalist
says, “voices are being raised ever more often about the need” to give up the
Donbass, a view that he argues will spread as Ukrainians recognize that “the
senselessness and lack of prospects” they have if they fight to keep it within
the borders of their country.
He cites one Ukrainian author as
having said that “all the problems of the Donbas should be put on Russia’s
shoulders,” that he doesn’t want to live inside the same country with people
like those in the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, and that Ukraine would benefit
by giving it up (mironovka.in.ua/index.php/easyblog/entry/poterya-donbassa-v-strategicheskom-plane-vygodna-ukraine).
To be sure, Rodionov says, that
Ukrainian author saw such a sacrifice as only temporary, something necessary
until with the help of the West, Ukraine could regain not only the Donbas but
Crimea and also “unite the Kuban and Rostov” to Ukraine.
But he argues that the idea of
separating the Donbas as a means of benefiting Ukraine is hardly new. Various authors have suggested that Kyiv
doesn’t need “the ballast” that that Russian-speaking and pro-Moscow area
represents just as some in Moldova are prepared to give up Transdniestria in
order to get into Europe (professionali.ru/Soobschestva/biznes-klub/ukraina-i-ne-ukraina-gde-prohodit-granitsa/).
Vladimir
Kornilov, the director of the Moscow Center for Eurasian Research, told
Rodionov that “Kyiv could federalize” Ukraine but that he “does not see any
chance to convince the population of Novorossiya” that this would meet their
needs: they want out. Thus, federalization now is about the rest of Ukraine,
not Novorossiya.
“The
issue of offering autonomy to the Donbas is now being actively proposed by Kyiv
itself in all international discussions,” Kornilov said. But what the Ukrainian
authorities are not talking about is “a mechanism for guaranteeing this
autonomy.” And no one can say how or why the Donbas would remain in Ukraine even
if it received that.
Federalization has had a checkered history in Ukraine,
Kornilov pointed out. Many supported the idea early on, but after the Orange
Revolution, it became “a curse word,” and all polls showed Ukrainians
overwhelmingly opposed it. After the loss of Crimea and the beginning of
clashes in Donbass, the number of Ukrainian supporters of federalization dropped
still further.
“But
now,” Kornilov insisted, “when Ukrainian society is escaping from the illusion
about the possibility of ‘a blitzkrieg’ in the Donbas, the number of supporters
of its autonomy and even separation will grow. This is only a question of time…”
Many
think that pro-Moscow forces would have to advance as far as Kyiv to achieve
that, but Kornilov argued that much less is needed: an end to Ukraine’s
promotion of Russophobia would be enough.
Aleksey
Blyumkin, another Russian political analyst, told Rodionov that “the
federalization of Ukraine would be the most desirable outcome and correspond to
the long-term interests of all its residents” as a means of avoiding the
division of Ukraine. But “the window of opportunity for this is already
closing.”
The
people of the Donbas and Novorossiya more generally, he said, do not trust Kyiv
and do not want to live in a Ukraine however organized, and Ukrainians
increasingly do not want to deal with them openly and honestly and are likely
to become ever more disposed to letting them go their own way.
One
should remember that after Ukraine lost Crimea, many said that this would give
Ukrainians “a chance to build a normal country.” Now, he said he was “certain,”
these same people and others as well will “write more texts explaining” why
Ukraine will live better “having lost the Donbas.”
But
for such ideas to spread to the entire Ukrainian population, he said, “the war
must come into each home” and not remain, as is the case now, simply something
Ukrainians watch on television. When a Ukrainian “loses a son and a job and
remains without light and water,” then, Blyumkin added, “very many people in
Kyiv” will change their views.
They
will “suddenly feel themselves ‘Eurasians’ and recall that they have Russian
roots,” hardly a message that anyone seeking a genuine and long-lasting
ceasefire let alone peace would be sending.
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