Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 2 – Vladimir Putin’s
war in Ukraine has “unexpectedly” allowed Tatarstan to retain its presidency
and thus “again confirm its status as a special region within Russia, ‘an
exception from the rules,’ …as former Federal Council speaker Sergey Mironov
put it, and thus, “a bastion of federalism” within Russia, according to a Muslim
commentator.
In comments to Ansar.ru, Abdulla
Rinat Mukhametov says that Putin’s decision to allow Tatarstan to retain its
presidency is the unexpected result of his war in Ukraine. Given that “the
problems of federalization, decentralization, development and the authority of
the regions in Russia is no less a problem than in Ukraine,” Putin doesn’t want
to rock the boat just now.
When Moscow talks about restrictions
on the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine, he continues, it is reasonable
that the Russian leader should also recall that “far from everything is in
order with the non-Russian and even the Russian subjects” of the Russian
Federation (ansar.ru/analytics/2014/09/01/52902).
Demonstrations in support of federalization
in Russia have taken place in several major cities of the country in recent
times, something the “anti-Putin opposition” has attempted to exploit and that
the regime has effectively squelched, Mukhametov says. But that hasn’t changed
the reality that “potentially, federalism is one of the most important challenges”
to Moscow.
“If a
wise resolution will not be found,” he continues, “it will hardly be possible
to speak about the well-being” of Russia.
“De
facto,” the Muslim commentator continues, “Russia is a federation today only on
paper and by name. In reality, it is more a unitary state,” and Putin’s effort
to eliminate republic presidents was supposed to “complete this process.” As a
result, had Tatarstan given it, this would have been “the symbolic end of real
federalism.”
The Ukrainian crisis has given Tatarstan a chance to save
what is left of federalism at least for a time and even remain a leader of
federalist forces in Russia, he says. Putin’s concession reflects the fact that
neither he nor anyone else in Moscow wants to risk destabilizing the situation
inside the country while it is at war with Ukraine.
But in retaining
the office of the presidency, Tatarstan has retained something else, at least
part of the “at one time broad authorities” that it had had under the terms of
the corresponding agreements with Moscow and the Russian Constitution. How long
that will last remains unclear given that “the general anti-federalist trend in
the state is obvious.”
If and when the
conflict in Ukraine comes to an end, he argues, then “the same neo-imperialist policy
which is being carried out against Ukraine will “intensify” inside Russia
against the Middle Volga, the North Caucasus and elsewhere.
Just now, many
North Caucasians view the Ukrainian crisis as “manna from heaven” because the
Russian media have ceased to attack people from that region and the level of anti-Caucasus
attitudes in Russian society has declined. But Mukhametov says that in his
view, such attitudes will re-emerge in “even more brutal forms” after Ukraine.
And their
re-emergence will be paralleled by a re-emergence of anti-minority and
anti-regional sentiment more generally. That “will threaten minorities” of all
kinds, including religious ones like Islam, and prevent them along with the
country’s various nations from becoming subjects of Russian statehood with
equal rights.
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