Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 3 – Following
last Sunday’s the parliamentary elections in Moldova -- a vote which pro-Moscow
activists are setting the stage to challenge -- Gagauzia “could become the
detonator” of revolutionary change in Moldova in a manner much like the Donbas
in southeastern Ukraine, according to Ivan Lizan.
That is because the “Odnako”
commentator says today, it is precisely in that Turkic region that “a critical
mass of contradictions” has formed. Any attempt by Chisinau to suppress them “will
trigger a civil war in the republic which will end with its disintegration and
the reformation of the region” (odnako.org/blogs/na-itogi-viborov-v-moldavskiy-parlament-chto-ozhidaet-respubliku-i-eyo-sosedey/).
So far, he continues, “the behavior
of Gagauz elites has remained unclear,” but Chisinau will now undoubtedly “try
to liquidate the Gagauz autonomy” and that should be enough to set them off. “Naturally,”
the pro-Moscow and pro-Soviet commentator adds, “if the elites of Gagauzia find
within themselves the strength for the struggle.”
Lizan’s comments
about the 200,000-strong Gagauz minority in Moldova are part of his larger
argument that Moldova could be about to undergo a “color” revolution but in
this case not in the direction of the West against Moscow but rather in the
direction of Moscow against the West.
Most analysts of
color revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and elsewhere have suggested that they
are most likely to occur when there is a disputed election outcome, when the
government is divided and weak, and when the population concludes that elites
are both corrupt and are ignoring the interests of the people in favor of their
own.
In Lizan’s view,
all these factors are present in Moldova, but they are coming together to push
that country in an entirely different direction than many might expect.
According to him,
the election was fraudulent not only because of corruption and fraud within
Moldova but because Chisinau supposedly suppressed voting by Moldovans living
and working in the Russian Federation. There are nearly 700,000 of them. Most,
he says, could be counted on to support a pro-Moscow position. But only about
5,000 voted.
Moreover, the
results – which gave pro-European parties a majority that he says they should
not have received – will be used by Europe, the United States and oligarchs in
Moldova to ensure that Chisinau remains on a pro-Western track and even comes
down harder on those in the media and elsewhere who support a pro-Moscow
orientation.
The Socialist
Party and its leader Igor Dodon received the most votes, but they will be
frozen out of the government, and the communists led by Vladimir Voronin may
even support the pro-Western government, yet another demonstration, Lizan says,
of what a mistake it is for Moscow to count on post-Soviet elites who are all
too willing to sell out to the West.
The Moldovan
communists, he argues, “are a conformist oligarchic force and for long years
have pursued a course in Moldova of fusion with Romania.” Their oppositionist
pose is just that. It is “all for show.”
Instead, and just like the other
oligarchs, they see their future only in terms of opposition to Moscow.
As a result,
Lizan continues, “the population of Moldova already the poorest country in
Europe will be completely lumpenized, and those most capable of working will
leave the republic and join the more than one million-strong army of Moldovan
gastarbeiters” abroad.
“The Russian language will
be expelled from all spheres of public life,” he says, with it being dropped as
a required subject in the schools. The regime will move to close opposition
media and will intensify “Russophobic propaganda.” And it will also increase
its blockade of Transdniestria.
All this sets the stage for
a social and political explosion, Lizan argues, and he insists that it may
begin with the Gagauz, a people few outside of Moldova have heard much about
before but one that could play a major role in what the Odnako commentator
suggests could be the first pro-Moscow “color” revolution.
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