Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 2 – Many in
Ukraine and elsewhere think that falling oil prices or increased Western
sanctions or more sensible people in his entourage will convince Vladimir Putin
to change course and end his aggressive policies, but they are wrong because
none of these things will affect Putin’s pursuit of his goals, according to
Andrey Illarionov.
At a press conference in Kyiv
yesterday, the Russian analyst said that none of these things will have an
impact at least in the short term and that Putin will continue to pursue his
strategic goals of establishing “political, economic and financial control over
Ukraine” (ukrinform.ua/rus/news/putina_ne_ostanovyat_ni_neft_ni_sanktsii_ni_ego_okrugenie___illarionov_1689782
Ukrainians and their supporters must
not count on anything else, he said. Instead, they must be prepared for “a very
long drawn-out struggle in order to defend [Ukraine’s] sovereignty and
independence,” and Ukrainians must work to increase their ability to defend
their country militarily and economically.
Among the steps Ukrainians must
take, the Russian economist said, are “economic reforms, avoiding default, the
liquidation of the budget deficit and a radical reduction of budgetary
expenditures,” even as they continue to fight against an invader. Such steps
are equally necessary to defeat him.
It is vitally important that
Ukrainians and their supporters stop putting their faith in things that will
not work, he continued. Putin’s entourage, even though it may contain people
who individually and personally oppose his policies in Ukraine is not going to
have the impact they hope for.
“Putin’s entourage does not take
strategic decisions,” Illarionov pointed out. “In practice, one man takes such
strategic decisions in Russia,” and that man is Putin.
Nor is the hope that falling oil
prices will cause him to cease and desire a real one. Despite the economic hardships these things
are imposing on Russia, there is little chance that there will be the kind of unrest
that would force Putin to change course. And the collapse of the ruble won’t
either because it will in fact make Russian exports more competitive, not less.
The issue of Putin’s relationship
with those around him is increasingly the subject of discussions both in Moscow
and in the West, with many as Illarionov noted placing their hopes in “cooler
heads” in the Kremlin to bring Putin around.
But Putin’s concentration of power in his hands makes that unlikely, as
the commentator says.
Moreover, there is another
consequence of Putin’s concentration of power that is a matter for serious
concern: he has sufficiently insulated himself from those around him and even
from reality that he is no longer in a position to reliably assess what the
situation really is (Cf. glavpost.com/post/1dec2014/blogs/6993-alfred-koh-glupost-putina-dostigla-takogo-urovnya-chto-on-ne-v-sostoyanii-ponyat-kto-vrag.html).
And
that in turn leads to greater unpredictability, greater uncertainty, and thus
greater danger for Ukraine and Russia’s other neighbors, for Russia, but
ultimately for Putin himself, even though as a result of the system he has
created, the Kremlin leader increasingly does not seem to be aware of that possibility.
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