Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 4 – The extent to
which Vladimir Putin upended the international order by his illegal seizure of
Crimea is becoming ever more obvious: Now Chinese officials are citing the
Kremlin leader’s actions there – and implicitly the West’s failure to block him
– as reasons for thinking that they can do the same in Southeast Asia,
according to a Russian analyst.
In a commentary on the Svobodnaya
pressa portal today, Andrey Ivanov says that Beijing “wants to repeat the
success of [Russia’s] Crimean scenario in Southeast Asia” and then offers the
comments of Aleksey Maslov, a senior orientalist at Moscow’s Higher School of
Economics, in support of his argument (svpressa.ru/war21/article/153682/).
Following the Hague ruling against
it concerning the islands in the South China Sea, Ivanov points out, Beijing’s
rhetoric has become ever clearer about China’s intention to use whatever means
are necessary to defend what it views as its sovereign territory, including the
use of military force, which could lead
to a major war.
Maslov agrees and makes an argument
which, although he does not acknowledge it, underscores some additional
parallels between Beijing’s posture now and that of Moscow prior to its
invasion of Ukraine in 2014 by suggesting that China had to react to the Hague
decision because of its increasing economic and social problems at home.
“The worsening social situation within
the country” and “problems in the economy,” he says, meant that Beijing “must
show to its own citizens that the position of the leadership of the state
regarding the islands remains unchanged,” that “the islands are Chinese and
must be defended as such.”
Maslov says that he does not think
that anyone “really wants to fight” because “any military acitons in the area
of the disputed islands would throw China back many years” and force China to
change its approach in a major way because “China from a peaceful state would
be transformed into a state ready to fight.”
What all this is about, Maslov says,
is that “China wants to show itself to be a military power.”
Maslov’s key observation is this: “China
has very carefully looked at the Ukrainian problem, at how Russia resolved it
and at what has been the reaction of international public opinion.” That is
because “China wants to do something similar” so that Beijing will look both prescient
and powerful.
He then says that he “fears that
precisely this attempt to repeat the Russian experience could lead to a
prolonged conflict.” Such a conflict could grow into a much larger one,
although it is “extremely” unlikely that it could trigger a third world war,
Maslov says, given that there aren’t any countries in the region interested in or
capable of fighting one.
The country that might benefit from
such a conflict the most would be the United States, the Moscow orientalist
says, because then Washington could portray China as “an aggressive country”
and thus a danger against which countries in the region should united with the US
against. There is some evidence that the US is encouraging such feelings, he concludes.
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