Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 14 -- The flood of news stories from a country as large,
diverse and strange as the Russian Federation often appears to be is far too
large for anyone to keep up with. But there needs to be a way to mark those
which can’t be discussed in detail but which are too indicative of broader
developments to ignore.
Consequently, Windows on Eurasia presents a selection of 13 of these other and
typically neglected stories at the end of each week. This is the 78th
such compilation. It is only suggestive and far from complete – indeed, once
again, one could have put out such a listing every day -- but perhaps one or
more of these stories will prove of broader interest.
1.
Putin’s Election
Program – Promise Massive Change But Keep Everything the Same. The post-Crimea consensus having collapsed (versia.ru/sociologi-fiksiruyut-konec-krymskogo-consensusa), and repression having
ceased to intimidate and begun to anger Russians (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58EF8712EB6E7),
Vladimir Putin has no choice but to promise massive change when he runs for
re-election to keep himself in power and thus everything just the same, Moscow
commentators say (snob.ru/selected/entry/123238). This week,
commentators laid particular stress on three problems facing the Kremlin
leader: he is trying to act internationally as if Russia had 22 percent of the
world’s GDP and not the two percent it does have (echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1961246-echo/), popular culture
including new cartoon film is narrowing the distance between Putin and his
boyars, thus undercutting the assumption that Russians will always support the
former as a check on the latter (abzats.info/txwkajy74e90), and Putin’s
talk about not allowing color revolutions in Russia and the former Soviet space
has called attention to a risk that he earlier refused to discuss and raised
concerns about what may in fact happen next (ng.ru/news/578151.html).
2.
Trump has Betrayed
Russia to Escape Impeachment, Moscow Commentator Says. Maksim Shevchenko
says that the only reason Donald Trump did not live up to Moscow’s expectations
for better relations between the US and Russia was to avoid being impeached and
removed from office by the American establishment (business-gazeta.ru/article/342926). But some
Russians think the US president won’t be able to escape that fate: LDPR leader
Vladimir Zhirinovsky who hosted a champagne celebration on Trump’s election now
says that he will drink champagne when Trump is impeached (svpressa.ru/politic/news/170305/). Vladimir Putin has suggested relations with
Washington have been degraded since Trump took office (belaruspartisan.org/politic/376240/), but
some analysts near the Kremlin say that they still expect Trump to deliver on
his election promises (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58ED119FE469D).
Other Russians are just angry: some are now blaming Trump rather than Barack
Obama for the fact that they aren’t getting their pensions (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58EA0F3107B43), and a group of
Cossacks in St. Petersburg has decided to strip Trump of his rank of esaul in
their unit because of his bad behavior toward Russia (newsland.com/community/4711/content/peterburgskie-kazaki-prigrozili-lishit-trampa-zvaniia-esaula/5777444). But perhaps the
most interesting observation about Trump from Moscow this week came from one
writer who said that Trump’s reaction to the gas attack in Syria shows that he
has a heart, an organ that he suggested Putin lacks (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58EDC09DA0D70).
3.
Could Concerns
about Inflation Save Russia from Repressive Yarovaya Laws? Some commentators have pointed out that if the
Yarovaya package of repressive measures is enforced, that will cost Moscow some
4.5 trillion rubles (75 billion US dollars), an amount that could threaten to
trigger a new round of higher inflation (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58EB2EA0C1D56 and rbc.ru/technology_and_media/13/04/2017/58ef849a9a7947134a887f98). Meanwhile, the
last week brought another harvest of bad economic news: Russia’s foreign debt
is up dramatically (izvestia.ru/news/683750), capital flight
doubled from the first quarter of 2016 to the first three months of 2017 (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58ED11021F084), officials said
that as a result of sanctions, Russia can no longer produce its own large gas
turbines (ng.ru/economics/2017-04-14/4_6974_krum.html), one commentator
has offered advice on “how to make money in Russia and stay alive while doing
so” (svpressa.ru/economy/article/169611/), corruption has
assumed a new form in Russia – it is so much a part of the system that
corruption in the usual sense hardly exists anymore (agonia-ru.com/archives/6388), losses from
financial crimes in Russia in 2016 were the largest ever (rbc.ru/finances/13/04/2017/58eedf8b9a7947435c288fc1?from=main), and experts say
that the real level of poverty among Russians is now twice as high as the
government says (ng.ru/economics/2017-04-12/4_6973_real.html).
4.
Social Problems
Multiply Exponentially. Despite Dmitry Medvedev’s latest entry in the Marie
Antoinette sweepstakes by saying that banning Western produces makes Russian
life better (rufabula.com/news/2017/04/07/just-better), the problems
Russians face in their daily lives are increasing at a staggering rate. Among
the bad news in this sector in the last week alone are the following stories:
At present, one hospital is closing every day in the Russian Federation and
other medical facilities are being cut back at almost the same rate (forum-msk.org/material/economic/13053682.html and newsland.com/community/4765/content/rf-eshchio-5-6-let-do-pokazatelei-meditsiny-rossiiskoi-imperii-1913-g/5773242). As a result,
one in four Russians isn’t getting needed medical help (newsland.com/community/5862/content/kazhdogo-4-go-rossiianina-lishat-meditsinskoi-pomoshchi/5779789). But there is little likelihood that the
medical situation will improve soon. According to the Moscow times, Russian
doctors are now paid less than Russian fast food workers (https://themoscowtimes.com/news/russian-doctors-paid-less-than-fast-food-workers-57667). Moscow’s
pro-natalist policies have exhausted themselves, experts say, and now even
millionaire cities are beginning to see their populations decline (lenta.ru/articles/2017/04/03/malevamatcap/ and newsland.com/community/7411/content/vymiraiushchie-goroda-rossii/5777720).
As for entertainment, Russians face a bleaker future: charter flights to Turkey
may be stopped (echo.msk.ru/news/1960768-echo.html), and while more
vodka is being produced, prices for it are going up (izvestia.ru/news/681641 and newsland.com/community/politic/content/minimalnaia-stoimost-butylki-vodki-v-rossii-vyrastet-do-205-rublei/5780925).
One thing that Russian authorities are doing to promote domestic tourism: they
are making low-cost prostitution services an integral part of their programs
for resorts (yug.svpressa.ru/society/article/145686/). Young Russians
are increasingly unhappy about life in their country, and so the Kremlin has
decided to address the problem by creating its own new bureaucracy to deal with
it (newsland.com/user/1637669351/content/sotsiolog-obiasnil-chto-budet-esli-ne-udovletvorit-zapros-molodezhi-na-spravedlivost/5780150
https://www.znak.com/2017-04-12/posle_protestnyh_akciy_v_kremle_peresmotryat_rabotu_s_molodezhyu). With the spread
of gun ownership, mass poaching is now a serious problem in the Russian North (siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/shocking-new-evidence-of-mass-murder-of-famous-reindeer-population/). Because their pensions are so small, ever
more elderly Russians are going back into the workforce (iq.hse.ru/news/204917251.html). And at the same
time, more Central Asian and Caucasian gastarbeiters are leaving Russia but
Russians aren’t taking their jobs because they don’t want to occupy such
unskilled and low-paying positions, a new study finds (iq.hse.ru/news/204860366.html).
5.
Ethnic Tensions
Increase Across Russia. Reports
suggest that ethnic antagonisms between Russians and non-Russians are on the
rise and not just tensions among non-Russians as was largely the case earlier (facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=385760608475370&id=100011243012670, infpol.ru/news/society/125782-mestnoe-naselenie-v-osnovnom-pyet-samogon-i-ubivaet-turistov/ and iwgia.org/images/stories/sections/regions/arctic/documents/IW2016/Russian_Federation_IW2016_web_redu.pdf). In ordering
Moscow to pay compensation to the victims of the Beslan disaster, the European
Human Rights Court sharply criticized the Russian government for its handling
of ethnic relations (echo.msk.ru/news/1962358-echo.html). Chechen
officials attacked Novaya gazeta for
its coverage of Grozny’s repression of gays and threatened them with physical
reprisals, leading the Kremlin to denounce that and other media outlets to come
to Novaya’s defense (rbc.ru/politics/14/04/2017/58f0982f9a7947a7dae75df9?from=main, echo.msk.ru/blog/aav/1962928-echo/ and .novayagazeta.ru/articles/2017/04/13/72146-zayavlenie-novoy-gazety-v-svyazi-s-otkrytymi-ugrozami-prozvuchavshimi-v-adres-redaktsii).
In addition, a Duma committee rejected the idea of allowing federal subject
courts to rule on extremism; only federal courts can do that, it said, another
sign that popular tensions are having official consequences (sova-center.ru/misuse/news/lawmaking/2017/04/d36760/). But there was one piece of good news:
longtime and much-hated Mari El governor Leonid Markelov was not only fired but
has been charged with massive corruption (echo.msk.ru/news/1962344-echo.html and graniru.org/Society/Law/m.260219.html).
6.
Protests on All
Kinds of Issues Spread as Officials Try to Contain Them. In addition to the long-haul truckers strike
and the fallout from the March 26 Navalny anti-corruption protests, Russian
citizens went in the street to protest all manner of things,, from access to
education in Tomsk (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2017/04/10/72082-ot-party-k-partii) to living
conditions in Yakutsk (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58EB398C8C858) to workers who
haven’t been paid since 2015 (charter97.org/ru/news/2017/4/11/246513/ and newsland.com/community/7973/content/v-khakasii-golodaiushchie-stroiteli-namereny-otkazatsia-ot-vody/5777017). Under pressure from the Kremlin officials
have used all manner of means to block or isolate these protests. In Daghestan,
for example, officials are rejecting applications for protest meetings by
invoking the terrorist threat they say such meetings present (kavpolit.com/articles/u_dagestantsev_otnimajut_pravo_vyskazyvat_svoju_to-33025/).
7.
Student at Russian
Military Academy Arrested on Suspicion of Planning to Divert Guns to Terrorists. Russian police
arrested a student at the military academy in St. Petersburg on suspicion that
he was seeking to seize arms held at that facility and divert them to
terrorists (znak.com/2017-04-13/v_peterburge_po_podozreniyu_v_sodeystvii_terrorizmu_arestovan_kursant_voennoy_akademii). That was not the only security news this week:
Reports surfaced about dedovshchina and corruption as continuing problems in
the Russian armed services (www.idelreal.org/a/28407319.html),
Russian scientists have developed a robot and the first thing they have taught
it to do is to shoot a gun (rufabula.com/news/2017/04/14/robot),
and one Moscow commentator pointed out that in any new cold war, Russia have
not have any allies, leaving it far more at risk than was the former Soviet
Union (ng.ru/politics/2017-04-10/100_echo10042017.html).
8.
Two Really
Frightening Messages about War from Moscow.
Two Moscow commentaries this week are truly scary: The first in reacting
to calls for an investigation of the gas attacks in Syria points out that World
War I began with calls for an investigation of a terrorist attack, the killing
of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, implying that looking into the Syrian matter could
have similar consequences (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58EE462834EFC).
And the second suggested that for Russia, despite all the suffering it would
experience, a nuclear war has certain “pluses,” the kind of talk that makes it
easier for leaders to think they can fight and win a nuclear exchange (newsland.com/community/4489/content/okhlobystin-rasskazal-o-pliusakh-iadernoi-voiny-rossii-i-ssha/5774542).
9.
Monuments Conflicts
Continue to Spark Social Activism in Russia.
One commentator suggests that he would welcome a decision by the Russian
government to hand back even more churches to the Moscow Patriarchate because public
opposition to such moves would help build civil society (lenta.ru/columns/2017/04/14/isaakiy/).
There are certainly enough churches left to do so, with some 5,000 now falling
apart (life.ru/zabytyie_shiedievry_rossiia_mozhiet_utratit_5_tysiach_pamiatnikov_dierieviannogho_zodchiestva). St. Isaac’s in St. Petersburg is slated to be
handed over to the Orthodox Church on July 12, despite continuing opposition (graniru.org/Society/Religion/m.260215.html). But the government may slow down this process
less to meet public complaints than because of the expense: the Russian
Orthodox Church has asked the state to give it 13 billion rubles (200 million
US dollars) to rebuild churches, but the authorities are only prepared to give
2.9 billion (50 million US dollars) (ria.ru/religion/20170407/1491751743.html
and kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58ECBEE4567F9).
Other news this week from the monuments front includes Polish charges that the
Russian government is now doing what the Soviet regime did at Khatyn by
falsifying the list of who was killed there (echo.msk.ru/news/1959236-echo.html and rubaltic.ru/article/kultura-i-istoriya/12042017-polskie-vlasti-obvinili-rossiyu-v-sozdanii-anti-katyni/).
Activists plan to erect a statue to the 1920-21 Tambov peasant uprising (newsland.com/community/4765/content/antibolshevistskie-vosstaniia-krestian/5774476),
Moscow is planning a memorial to the victims of World War I (newsland.com/community/5652/content/v-moskve-mozhet-poiavitsia-memorialnyi-kompleks-v-pamiat-o-pervoi-mirovoi/5774751).
Activists are collecting money to erect in the Russiaan capital a statue to the
victims of Stalin’s repressions (newsland.com/community/129/content/torgovtsy-cherepami/5777641),
Moscow says it will move the statue of Gorky back to where it stood in Soviet times
(regnum.ru/news/cultura/2263297.html)
and will put up a statue to Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn as well (newsland.com/community/5652/content/v-moskve-ustanoviat-pamiatnik-solzhenitsynu/5781534).
10. Work on Rostov Stadium for 2018 World Cup Stopped
Because ‘There is No Money.”
Officials say they have no funds to continue working on the
modernization of the soccer stadium in Rostov that was supposed to be one of the
venues for the scheduled 2018 World Cup competition in Russia (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=58EF6D16F2F6A). Meanwhile, despite more violence at football
matches in Russia this year (regnum.ru/news/sport/2263250.html), Moscow officials promised there would not be any
clashes when the World Cup matches take place in their country (kp.ru/daily/26664.5/3685581/). They also continued to lash out at the WADA
for its investigations on the doping program in Russia (politobzor.net/128540-wada-smenilo-informatora-izvesten-novyy-predatel-rossiyskih-sportsmenov.html).
11.
‘Jewish-Masonic
Conspiracy’ Thinking Making a Comeback in Russia. Ever more
commentators and media outlets have revived the notion of “a Jewish-Masonic
conspiracy” as the force behind the Russian revolutions of 1917 and all of
Russia’s misfortunes since then (m24.ru/articles/61142). That
tsarist-era staple of those given to conspiracy thinking has been joined
recently by talk about “a deep state” on the model some have suggested exists
in the United States and opposes Donald Trump.
In the Russian version, the deep state consists or and is a weapon for
liberals domestic and foreign (svpressa.ru/politic/article/170085/).
12.
Can Moscow Narrow
‘Think Tank Gap’? Russian commentators argue that one of the
reasons Western governments do a better job in addressing many issues is that
they have the assistance of experts in think tanks who can speak more freely
than government employees usually can. These commentators bemoan the fact that
Russia does not have a large think tank community and urge that the government
get involved in creating one (menswork.ru/?q=content/защищая-государство-aналитические-центры-в-современной-политике). A recent meeting of the Higher School of
Economics and Russian officials suggest that there is a possibility that Russia
can move in that direction given that the independent scholars felt free to
criticize officials and the regime in the harshest terms and the officials sat
quietly and took it (polit.ru/article/2017/04/12/hse/
and kommersant.ru/doc/3268689).
13.
Russians Get Porno
Site Back but May Lose Facebook.
The Russian government agency which regulates the Russian Internet has
unblocked the Pornhub site (meduza.io/news/2017/04/13/pornhub-snova-stal-dostupen-v-rossii),
but a Duma deputy has called for banning access to Facebook in Russia, a clear
indication of the Kremlin’s priorities and its assessment of just where the
threats to its power come from (nr2.lt/blogs/Eugene_Titov/O-zaprete-Feybuka-v-Rossii-125213.html).
And six more from countries in
Russia’s neighborhood:
1.
Moscow Sets Up
Radar Site in Belarus. Minsk has still refused to allow Moscow to
open a military airbase on Belarusian territory, but in an example of the
Kremlin’s “creeping” advances, the Russian military under cover of its current
operation, West-2017, has set up a radar locator site there (camarade.biz/node/25616).
2.
Part of
Lithuania’s Hill of Crosses Burns. A small fire damaged an estimated 600 of
the wooden memorials at Lithuania’s Hill of Crosses. No foul play is suspected
at that world heritage site near Siaulai where more than 400,000 crosses have
been erected by Lithuanians and their supporters over the years (ru.sputniknewslv.com/Baltics/20170410/4415049/gora-kresty-pozhar-shauljaj-litva.html).
3. Ukrainian Remittances from Russia Home Said Larger
than IMF Loans and Foreign Investment. The more than a million Ukrainians living
in the Russian Federation are currently sending home more money than the total
of IMF loans and grants and direct foreign investment, giving Moscow
significant if often ignored leverage (newsland.com/community/politic/content/ukraintsy-iz-rossii-pereveli-bolshe-deneg-chem-investory-i-mvf-vmeste-vziatye/5778453).
4.
Russia
will Not Take Part in or Broadcast Eurovision Competition in Kyiv. The
Ukrainian authorities refused to allow Russia’s candidate to take part in the
Eurovision competition in Kyiv this year because she had violated Ukrainian law
by visiting occupied Crimea and making pro-Moscow declarations about it. Efforts to find a workaround have failed, and
Moscow has announced that it will not send anyone to participate in the
competition this year or cover it on Russian television (qha.com.ua/ru/obschestvo/rossiya-ne-budet-uchastvovat-v-evrovidenii/172977/).
5.
Russia Violates
International Law by Drafting 20 Crimeans into Its Army. International law prohibits an occupying
power from compelling those living under its control to serve in the military.
But Moscow, which has routinely ignored international law in recent years, has
violated this provision as well by drafting approximately 20 young men from
Crimea this year (ru.krymr.com/a/news/28420712.html).
6.
Kyrgyzstan Closes
Four of Its 106 Muslim Medressahs. Saying that they want to prevent the
spread of Islamist extremism, Bishkek has closed four of the medrassahs on its
territory declaring that their curricula are “incorrect.” At the same time, it
has allowed 102 others to remain in operation. They presumably are “correct” (centrasia.ru/news.php?st=1491972660).
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