Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 10 – Alyaksandr
Lukashenka has suffered three self-inflicted wounds his decision to demolish
the crosses at the site of the Kuropaty mass graves: he has lost whatever
sympathy he had among the population, he has likely made it impossible for any
Western leader to receive him, and he has called attention to splits within his
own regime.
That Lukashenka lost whatever
sympathy and support he had among Belarusians is no surprise: Not only did he
by his actions at Kuropaty dishonor their history but insulted their intense national
commitment to honoring the dead and especially those who died for the cause of
Belarus.
Today, a group of Belarusians took
to Lukashenka’s office to hand over a petition protesting what he did. It declared that by his actions at Kuropaty,
the Belarusian president had effectively “gone to war against the Belarusian
people” (belsat.eu/ru/news/zashhitniki-kuropat-trebuyut-ot-lukashenko-vernut-kresty-na-mesto/).
The Belarusian
leader may not care about that: his track record of abusing and ignoring his
own population is legendary. But he will
care very much about the second consequence of his actions. It is almost inconceivable
in the wake of what he did at Kuropaty that any Western leader will now be willing
to host him in his or her capital.
Belarusian commentator put it both
classically and bluntly: By his tearing down of the crosses at Kuropaty, “a
cross has been put on possible Lukashenka visits to NATO neighbors.” That deprives him of one of his major cards
in dealing with Russia and thus leaves him in a significantly weakened position
internationally.
But it is the third self-inflicted “wound”
that probably disturbs Lukashenka the most because it points to more troubles
ahead for his regime and his personal survival in office. According to analysts at Belarus in Focus, the decision to destroy the crosses at Kuropaty
highlights not only the failure of Lukashenka to think about the consequences
of his actions but also about something else.
And that is this: it highlights the
internal disagreements within his regime, disagreements that may now emerge
more publicly and more consequentially given Lukashenka’s rash action at
Kuropaty (belarusinfocus.info/by/security-issues/konflikt-vokrug-kuropat-prodemonstriroval-vnutrennie-raskoly-vo-vlasti
reposted at thinktanks.by/publication/2019/04/10/konflikt-vokrug-kuropat-prodemonstriroval-vnutrennie-raskoly-vo-vlasti.html).
The negative reaction of Belarusian
civil society to the Kuropaty outrage was completely predictable, but the
equally negative reaction of “a number of political officials, including those
who had been considered close to Lukashenka as well as representatives of businesses
affiliated with the government” shows that the country has entered an entire
new political era.
How much these will matter remains
to be seen, but at the very least, as the journal’s analysts observe, they
already show that “the Belarusian regime is far from as monolithic as it is
customary to think.” And that is
something Belarusians in the government and out as well as Russia and the West
are now going to factor into their calculations.
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