Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 13 – The incident on the
Chechen-Daghestan border was created and is proving to be beneficial to Moscow
which can use it to demand unity in Russia against the North Caucasus, analysts
say. And it is helping Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov both in his own republic and
in the Russian capital. But it is hurting
republic head Vladimir Vasilyev in Daghestan.
Ruslan Kutayev, the head of the Assembly
of Peoples of the Caucasus, and Akhmed Gisayev, a Chechen political émigré who
heads the Human Rights Analysis Center, say that the conflict over border signs
Chechens erected near Kizlyar is working for Moscow which can play up
Russian-Muslim differences (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336604/).
Kutayev says that the Kremlin is preparing
to exploit border issues in four places in the North Caucasus – Daghestan,
Chechnya, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria – in response to the sharpening of
the political conflict in Moscow. The
center is turning the various sides into “hostages” of the Kremlin, something
he says everyone must fight against.
He argues that “the source of
destabilization of inter-ethnic and inter-regional relations in the North
Caucasus is the policy of the federal center,” which seeks to keep the North
Caucasus divided with one part against another. The Kremlin seeks to block the
unity of the peoples of the North Caucasus and to provoke inter-ethnic tensions
in order to play on them.”
Gisayev adds that “the border between
Daghestan and Chechnya like other borders between Caucasus regions is not part
of the tradition of the peoples there. For us, borders are a real barbarism
because we are accustomed to life as free people, freely moving about.” Borders
are part and parcel of Russian policy and have been imposed from above.
The émigré activist said that he
does not think the Kizlyar situation will get out of hand because of “the wisdom
of the Caucasus peoples” who have a millennium-long history of reaching
agreements with each other if outsiders stay clear. But he wouldn’t exclude further provocations.
Meanwhile, the consequences for the
leaders of the two republics directly involved have been exactly opposite. Kadyrov
and other Grozny officials have won
overwhelming support from people in his republic for taking a tough line in
defense of Chechen borders (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336623/,
kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336636/ and
kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336611/).
But the situation in Makhachkala is
very different. Ever more Daghestanis say that Vasiliyev, for the first time
since becoming governor, has not been able to take a clear line, simultaneously
promising not to yield a single square meter of Daghestani land but saying the
Chechens were within their rights in putting up border signs (chernovik.net/content/lenta-novostey/vladimir-vasilev-vpervye-proyavil-neuverennost-na-postu-glavy-dagestana).
Some analysts say Vasiliyev is
perhaps correct or is simply bowing to the inevitable given Kadyrov’s power,
but most of them and from what one can judge most Daghestanis are furious that
he did not come down on the side of his own people, in sharp contrast to the
behavior of Kadyrov and the Chechens (kavkazr.com/a/29997548.html
and kavkazr.com/a/29997307.html).
That has cost him support on this
issue and undoubtedly will cause more Daghestanis to be suspicious about his
calculations and motives in the future, potentially gelding him as a political
actor and opening the way to destabilization in Russia’s most multi-ethnic and most
Islamic region.
Some Daghestani public
organizations, both with links to the regime and without, are frightened of
that prospect and have issued appeals to the population not to play up the
conflict over the border in Kizlyar lest disasters follow (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336634/).
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