Friday, June 14, 2019

Chechen-Daghestan Border Controversy Benefits Kremlin and Kadyrov But Hurts Vasiliyev, Analysts Say


Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 13 – The incident on the Chechen-Daghestan border was created and is proving to be beneficial to Moscow which can use it to demand unity in Russia against the North Caucasus, analysts say. And it is helping Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov both in his own republic and in the Russian capital.  But it is hurting republic head Vladimir Vasilyev in Daghestan.

            Ruslan Kutayev, the head of the Assembly of Peoples of the Caucasus, and Akhmed Gisayev, a Chechen political émigré who heads the Human Rights Analysis Center, say that the conflict over border signs Chechens erected near Kizlyar is working for Moscow which can play up Russian-Muslim differences (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336604/).

            Kutayev says that the Kremlin is preparing to exploit border issues in four places in the North Caucasus – Daghestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria – in response to the sharpening of the political conflict in Moscow.  The center is turning the various sides into “hostages” of the Kremlin, something he says everyone must fight against.

            He argues that “the source of destabilization of inter-ethnic and inter-regional relations in the North Caucasus is the policy of the federal center,” which seeks to keep the North Caucasus divided with one part against another. The Kremlin seeks to block the unity of the peoples of the North Caucasus and to provoke inter-ethnic tensions in order to play on them.”

            Gisayev adds that “the border between Daghestan and Chechnya like other borders between Caucasus regions is not part of the tradition of the peoples there. For us, borders are a real barbarism because we are accustomed to life as free people, freely moving about.” Borders are part and parcel of Russian policy and have been imposed from above.

            The émigré activist said that he does not think the Kizlyar situation will get out of hand because of “the wisdom of the Caucasus peoples” who have a millennium-long history of reaching agreements with each other if outsiders stay clear.  But he wouldn’t exclude further provocations.

            Meanwhile, the consequences for the leaders of the two republics directly involved have been exactly opposite. Kadyrov and other Grozny officials have  won overwhelming support from people in his republic for taking a tough line in defense of Chechen borders  (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336623/, kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336636/ and kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336611/).

            But the situation in Makhachkala is very different. Ever more Daghestanis say that Vasiliyev, for the first time since becoming governor, has not been able to take a clear line, simultaneously promising not to yield a single square meter of Daghestani land but saying the Chechens were within their rights in putting up border signs (chernovik.net/content/lenta-novostey/vladimir-vasilev-vpervye-proyavil-neuverennost-na-postu-glavy-dagestana).

            Some analysts say Vasiliyev is perhaps correct or is simply bowing to the inevitable given Kadyrov’s power, but most of them and from what one can judge most Daghestanis are furious that he did not come down on the side of his own people, in sharp contrast to the behavior of Kadyrov and the Chechens (kavkazr.com/a/29997548.html and kavkazr.com/a/29997307.html).

            That has cost him support on this issue and undoubtedly will cause more Daghestanis to be suspicious about his calculations and motives in the future, potentially gelding him as a political actor and opening the way to destabilization in Russia’s most multi-ethnic and most Islamic region. 

            Some Daghestani public organizations, both with links to the regime and without, are frightened of that prospect and have issued appeals to the population not to play up the conflict over the border in Kizlyar lest disasters follow (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/336634/).

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